Forecasting the wages of young men : the effects of cohort size / Hong W. Tan, Michael P. Ward.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Tan, Hong W., 1949-

Contributor:

Rand Corporation.

Ward, Michael P. (Michael Paul), 1947-

Series:

R (Rand Corporation)

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Wages--Young men--United States--Forecasting--Mathematical models.

Wages.

Wages--United States--Forecasting--Mathematical models.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xv, 58 pages) : illustrations

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corporation, [1985].

Summary:

In this study, the authors develop forecasts of the civilian wage structure over the next two decades for a variety of different scenarios. They focus on how the wage structure will change as the demographic trend reverses itself, i.e., as the smaller post-baby-boom birth cohorts enter the labor market in the 1980s and 1990s. Section II of the report describes the survey data used to create a working file for the analysis. Based on this file, the authors paint a broad overview of how cohort size and relative wages have changed over the 1967-1980 period. Section III discusses the wage model used and highlights the main empirical results. The assumptions and approach used to forecast wages are detailed in Sec. IV. Section V extends the wage model to investigate two alternative explanations for the observed decline in youth wages. The last section concludes with a summary of the main findings and their implications for military compensation policy.

Notes:

"R-3115-ARMY."

"Prepared for the Department of the Army."

"May 1985."