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Anticipating ethnic conflict / Ashley J. Tellis, Thomas S. Szayna, James A. Winnefeld.
- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Tellis, Ashley J.
- Series:
- Rand library collection
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Ethnic conflict--Forecasting--Handbooks, manuals, etc.
- Ethnic conflict.
- Social conflict--Forecasting--Handbooks, manuals, etc.
- Social conflict.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (xv, 118 pages) : illustrations
- Place of Publication:
- Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corporation, 1997.
- Summary:
- "Under what conditions are ethnic groups likely to take up violence against the state? When are they more likely to favor the peaceful pursuit of group aims? When are states likely to resort to violence and repression rather than negotiation? A better understanding and anticipation of such conflicts may improve the prospects for preventive action without force." "Anticipating Ethnic Conflict provides a theoretical model of the social processes and dynamics that lead to ethnic and communitarian conflict and state breakdown. While it is designed as a handbook and a practical tool for intelligence analysts as they work to identify and plan for potential ethnic-conflict contingencies around the world, its discussion of the social-science underpinnings of the analytic model will make it an important read for anyone interested in analyzing the phenomenon of ethnic conflict."--Jacket
- Contents:
- Ch. 1. Introduction Ch. 2. The Model: A Summary. Stage 1. The Potential for Strife. Stage 2. Transforming Potential Strife into Likely Strife. Stage 3. From Likely to Actual Strife Ch. 3. Questions and Guidelines for the Analyst. A. The Potential for Strife. A1. Assessing Closure in the Political Realm. A2. Assessing Closure in the Economic Realm. A3. Assessing Closure in the Social Realm. A4. Overall Assessment of Closure. B. Transforming Potential into Likely Strife. B1. Incipient Changes. B2. Galvanizing ("Tipping") Events. B3. Leadership. B4. Resources and Organization. B5. Foreign Element. B6. Overall Assessment of Mobilization. C. Assessing the State. C1. Accommodative Capability. C2. Fiscal and Economic Capability. C3. Coercive Capability. D. Strategic Bargaining. D1. Measuring the Capacities of the Group and the State. D2. Comparing Preferences Within the Bargaining Process. Final Observations on Using the Handbook Appendix. The Theoretical Model
- Notes:
- "Prepared for the U.S. Army by RAND's Arroyo Center."
- "MR-853-A."
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