Hybrid warfare in the Baltics : threats and potential responses / Andrew Radin.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Radin, Andrew, author.

Contributor:

Project Air Force (U.S.), publisher, issuing body.

Series:

Research report (Rand Corporation)

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Asymmetric warfare--Russia (Federation).

Asymmetric warfare.

Irregular warfare--Russia (Federation).

Irregular warfare.

Russia (Federation)--Military policy--21st century.

Russia (Federation).

Physical Description:

1 online resource (ix, 47 pages) : color map.

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corporation, 2017.

Summary:

"Many policymakers and analysts have expressed concerns about Russian use of "hybrid warfare," especially against Estonia and Latvia, which have significant Russian-speaking populations. The author of this report analyzes the hybrid threat to the Baltics by dividing potential Russian aggression in three categories: nonviolent subversion, covert violent action, and conventional warfare supported by subversion. The author finds that, given the growing integration of Russian speakers and high capacity of the Baltic states, Russia will have difficulty using nonviolent or covert action to subvert the Baltics absent the use of conventional force, and hence the Baltics' main vulnerability stems from Russia's local superiority in conventional forces. While improving the conventional deterrent in the region is important, the United States and its NATO allies should also address the potential for all forms of Russian aggression across the conflict spectrum. To this end, the author recommends an improved strategic communications campaign aimed at Russian speakers, measures to strengthen the Baltic states' security forces, and ensuring that any NATO deployment in the region does not unintentionally increase the potential for Russian subversion or miscalculation"--Publisher's description.

Contents:

Preface

Summary

Acknowledgments

1. Introduction

2. What Is Hybrid Warfare?

3. Hybrid Scenarios: Nonviolent Subversion

Covert Violent Action

Conventional Aggression Supported by Political Subversion

4. Policy Implications: Integration of Russians

Countering Covert Action

Avoiding the Risk of Conventional Deterrence Initiatives Fomenting Irregular Provocation

References.