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A portfolio-analysis tool for missile defense (PAT-MD) : methodology and user's manual / Paul Dreyer, Paul K. Davis.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Dreyer, Paul, 1973-
- Series:
- Technical report (Rand Corporation)
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Ballistic missile defenses--United States--Costs.
- Ballistic missile defenses.
- Investment analysis.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (xix, 76 pages) : illustrations (chiefly color)
- Place of Publication:
- Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corporation, 2005.
- Summary:
- This report documents the underlying methodology of RAND's Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD), an analytic tool developed to facilitate high-level discussion of program tradeoffs and adjustments in the Missile Defense Agency (MDA). PAT-MD provides summary portfolio-style characterizations of alternative investment options, including projected capabilities in different missions, the balance of emphasis across missions, the managing of risks, and economic considerations such as relative cost-effectiveness. PAT-MD and a companion tool, RAND's Capabilities Analysis Model for Missile Defense (CAMMD), make it possible to "zoom" to higher levels of detail in order to understand the basis of high-level characterizations and how they would change if assumptions or priorities were changed. PAT-MD provides five scoring and aggregation methods that correspond mathematically to alternative aggregation functions. The appropriate method-e.g., simple linear weighted sums or nonlinear methods that enforce the concept that a system with several critical components will fail if any of its critical components fail-depends on the analysis and context. Significantly, PAT-MD also provides a straightforward way to test sensitivity to goals and thresholds in order to ensure that results are not unduly sensitive to arbitrary assumptions. The report also serves as a user's guide to PAT-MD.
- Contents:
- Introduction Overview of PAT-MD PAT-MD input sheets PAT-MD output sheets Details of the methodology Concluding observations
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