China's evolving nuclear deterrent : major drivers and issues for the United States / Eric Heginbotham [and ten others].

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Heginbotham, Eric, author.

Contributor:

Project Air Force (U.S.), issuing body.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Nuclear weapons--China.

Nuclear weapons.

Ballistic missile defenses--China.

Ballistic missile defenses.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (196 pages)

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, California : RAND Corporation, 2017.

Summary:

"China's approach to nuclear deterrence has been broadly consistent since its first nuclear test in 1964. Key elements are its no-first-use policy and reliance on a small force of nuclear weapons capable of executing retaliatory strikes if China is attacked. China has recently accelerated nuclear force building and modernization, and both international and domestic factors are likely to drive faster modernization in the future. Chinese nuclear planners are concerned by strategic developments in the United States, especially the deployment of missile defenses. Within the region, Beijing is also an actor in complex multilateral security dynamics that now include several nuclear states, and the improving nuclear capabilities of China's neighbors, especially India, are a growing concern for Beijing. Constituencies for nuclear weapons have gained in bureaucratic standing within the People's Liberation Army (PLA). With few, if any, firewalls between China's conventional and nuclear missile forces, new technologies developed for the former are already being applied to the latter, a trend that will almost certainly continue. Given these changes, China is likely to increase emphasis on nuclear deterrence, accelerate nuclear force modernization, and make adjustments (although not wholesale changes) to policy."--Publisher's description.

Contents:

Preface

Figure and Tables

Summary

Acknowledgments 1. China's Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Introduction: Background

Literature Review

Objectives, Scope, and Boundaries

Findings

Organization of This Report

2. Baseline: China's Evolving Strategic Nuclear Concepts: $t Chinese Nuclear Policy

Chinese Views on Deterrence

Chinese Nuclear Strategic and Operational Concepts

Future Evolution

3. China's Nuclear Force Structure: Historical Background

China's Current Nuclear Force Structure

Future Land-and Sea-Based Missile Systems

Conclusions

4. China's View of the Global Security Environment: Overall Security Environment

Low Likelihood of Major Power Conflict

Threats Remain, Asia-Pacific Region Less "Stable"

Chinese Views on Global Nuclear Environment

5. Chinese Views of U.S. Nuclear Forces and Policy: U.S. Nuclear Weapon Doctrine and Strategy

Ballistic Missile Defense

Conventional Prompt Global Strike

Conclusion

6. Nested Security Dilemmas and China's View of Other (Non-U.S.) Nuclear Powers: Nested Security Dilemmas

Russia as Contributor to Global Nuclear Atmospherics

South Asia's Increasing Nuclear Prominence

China's North Korea Problem

China's View of Japan

7. Internal Drivers: Political Leadership and Bureaucracy: China's Political Leadership and the Rational-Actor Model

Bureaucratic Politics and the Military Services

Organizational Process as a Potential Driver of Chinese Nuclear Force Structure

8. Material Resources and Constraints: $t China's Budgetary Environment

Fissile Material as a Limiting Factor

9. Outputs: Potential Developments in China's Nuclear Future: China's Discussions of the No-First-Use Policy

$t Accelerated Buildup of Nuclear Systems

Nuclear Warfighting Capability or Concepts

Investing in a Nuclear Triad

Establishing a Chinese Missile Defense System

Incorporating New Technology

$t Conclusions

$g 10. Contingent Futures: $t Drivers and Probabilities

Chinese Nuclear Futures: Three Scenarios

$g 11. China's Accelerating Nuclear Modernization: Implications: Arms Control and Arms Racing

Crisis Stability and Escalation

Implications for Extended Deterrence of Nuclear and Regional Political Stability

Recommendations

Abbreviations

Bibliography.

Notes:

"Rand Project Air Force."

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (ebrary, viewed April 18, 2017).

ISBN:

0-8330-9654-0