Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: Assessing Future Trends in Armed Conflict and U.S. Military Interventions

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Lane, Matthew

Contributor:

United States. Army.

Arroyo Center. Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program.

Rand Corporation.

Chandler, Nathan

Frederick, Bryan

Kavanagh, Jennifer

Smith, Meagan L.

Watts, Stephen

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

United States--Military policy--21st century.

United States.

United States. Army--Operational readiness--Planning.

United States. Army--Operational readiness--Mathematical models.

United States. Army--Personnel management.

Other Title:

Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces

Place of Publication:

RAND Corporation 2022

Summary:

To defend against potential threats, the U.S. Army devotes significant resources to strategic and operational planning. This planning is an exercise in risk management across the wide array of potential threats facing the United States. Military planners need tools that leverage emergent trends in the global geostrategic environment to forecast future contingencies to preemptively build, shape, and prepare U.S. forces for the kinds of missions they are most likely to encounter in the future and for the contingencies that pose the greatest strategic risk to the United States. This report provides empirically grounded assessments of potential future demands for U.S. ground forces. It does so by presenting a dynamic forecasting model that projects future U.S. ground interventions in a range of scenarios through the year 2040. The model the authors have developed incorporates annual projections of opportunities for U.S. intervention-including armed conflicts and their aftermath-and U.S. ground interventions themselves for each year in the 2017-2040 time frame. The authors present three main types of projections: trends in the future operating environment, including the incidence of interstate wars and intrastate conflicts; future U.S. ground interventions, including those involving deterrence, combat, and stabilization activities; and the anticipated average force requirements for those interventions. This analysis identifies key factors that can serve as early warning indicators of future conflicts and provides an improved empirical basis for estimating the frequency, magnitude, duration, and overlap of future contingencies.

Contents:

CHAPTER ONE: Introduction

CHAPTER TWO: Historical Trends in Armed Conflict and U.S. Ground Interventions

CHAPTER THREE: Methodology for Forecasting Future Armed Conflicts and U.S. Ground Interventions

CHAPTER FOUR: Future Demand for U.S. Ground Forces : Forecasts of Armed Conflicts and U.S. Military Interventions

CHAPTER FIVE: Conclusions and Implications for U.S. Army Force Planning

APPENDIX A: Historical Force Requirements Coding Methodology and Notes

APPENDIX B: Forecasting Model Assumptions, Components, and Processes

APPENDIX C: Results of Alternative Future Scenario Forecasting Models.

Notes:

See also RAND/TL-365-A