The Magnitude and Sources of Disagreement Among Gun Policy Experts: Second Edition

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Smart, Rosanna.

Contributor:

Morral, Andrew R.

Schell, Terry L.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Gun control--United States.

Gun control.

Firearms ownership--United States.

Firearms ownership.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (139 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation 2021

: RAND Corporation, The, 2022.

Summary:

The effects of firearm policies, though frequently debated, have historically received less-rigorous scientific evaluation than have the effects of other policies affecting public safety, health, and recreation. Despite improvements in recent years, there is still limited evidence of how some gun policies that are frequently proposed or enacted in the United States are likely to affect important outcomes (such as firearm homicides, property crime, and the right to bear arms). In areas without strong scientific evidence, policymakers and the public rely heavily on what policy advocates or social scientists believe the effects are most likely to be. In this report, part of the RAND Gun Policy in America initiative, RAND researchers describe the combined results from two fieldings (2016 and 2020) of a survey of gun policy experts. Respondents were asked to estimate the likely effects of 19 gun policies on ten outcomes. The researchers use these and other responses to establish the diversity of beliefs among gun policy experts, assess where experts are in more or less agreement on the effects of gun laws, and evaluate whether differences in the policies favored by experts result from differences in experts' assumptions about the policies' effects or differences in experts' policy objectives. The analysis suggests that experts on different sides of the gun policy debate share some objectives but disagree on which policies will achieve those objectives. Therefore, collecting stronger evidence about the true effects of policies is, the researchers believe, a necessary step toward building greater consensus on which policies to pursue.

Contents:

Cover

Title Page

Copyright

About This Report

Summary

Contents

Figures and Tables

CHAPTER ONE: Introduction

CHAPTER TWO: Sample of Policy Experts

Sample Identification

Number of Individuals Directly Invited to Respond

CHAPTER THREE: Survey Design and Analysis Plan

Selecting Gun Policies and Outcomes for Analysis

Estimating the Effects of Gun Policies

Overall Opinion of Policies

Spillover Effects of Firearm Policies on Nonfirearm Deaths

Gun Ownership and Homicide Risk Estimates

Characterizing Respondent Perspectives on Gun Policy

Analytic Plan

CHAPTER FOUR: Survey Findings

Respondent Sample

Class Identification

Estimated Effects of Policies on Outcomes

Beliefs About Firearm Law Effects on Nonfirearm Deaths

Beliefs About Legal Gun Ownership and Homicide Risk

CHAPTER FIVE: Do Experts in the Two Groups Value or Prioritize Different Outcomes?

Overview of Methods

Results

Conclusions

CHAPTER SIX: Updating the Gun Policy Expert-Opinion Tool

Methods, Assumptions, and Limitations

Using the Gun Policy Expert-Opinion Tool

CHAPTER SEVEN: Discussion and Conclusions

Expert Groups' Assessments of Policies and Their Effects Showed Some Areas of Agreement

Experts' Estimates of the Probable Effects of Policies Are Broadly Consistent with Scant Available Science

Group Differences Concern True Effects of Policies, Not Different Priorities or Policy Objectives

Groups Differ on Fundamental Questions About Guns and Gun Policy

Recommendations

APPENDIXES

A. RAND Survey of Firearms Experts

B. Descriptive Statistics by Expert Class, Outcome, and Policy

C. Statistical Modeling of Experts' Favorability Ratings

D. Data Sources, Calculations, and Additional Assumptions for the Online Gun Policy Expert-Opinion Tool

References

Back Cover.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

Other Format:

Print version: Smart, Rosanna The Magnitude and Sources of Disagreement among Gun Policy Experts, Second Edition

ISBN:

9781977408389

1977408389

OCLC:

1299382263