Retaining U.S. Air Force pilots when the civilian demand for pilots is growing / Michael G. Mattock, James Hosek, Beth J. Asch, Rita Karam.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Mattock, Michael G., 1961- author.

Hosek, James R., author.

Asch, Beth J., author.

Karam, Rita, author.

Contributor:

Project Air Force (U.S.)

United States. Air Force, sponsoring body.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Air pilots, Military--Recruiting--United States.

Air pilots, Military.

Air pilots, Military--Supply and demand--United States.

Airlines--Employees--Supply and demand--United States.

Airlines.

Air pilots--Supply and demand--United States.

Air pilots.

Summary:

"An increase in pilot hiring at major commercial airlines could increase the outflow of U.S. Air Force rated officers and create manning shortfalls. In addition, because aviator pay (AP) and aviator retention pay (ARP) are now discretionary programs under Department of Defense Instruction 7730.67 and budget requests for them must be defended, the Air Force requires a capability to help anticipate the range of possible changes in civilian pilot pay and hiring and estimate the level of AP or ARP needed as a countermeasure. The authors provide data and analysis of airline pilot supply, compensation, and demand and conclude that major airlines are increasing both pilot pay and hiring, which could decrease Air Force pilot retention. They extended RAND's dynamic retention model to include the choice of ARP contract length and airline hiring. They estimated the model using longitudinal data on Air Force pilot retention for 1990 through 2000 entry cohorts followed to 2012 and incorporated new estimates of the civilian age-earnings profile of ex-military pilots employed by major airlines. With the estimated model, they simulated the effect on pilot retention of increases in civilian pay and airline hiring, as well as the elimination of AP for pilots assigned to non-flying positions. The authors found the levels of AP and ARP needed to offset those effects and sustain Air Force pilot retention. The findings vary by case, but a range of foreseeable increases in major airline hiring and pay would require increases in ARP to at least $38,500 and potentially as high as $62,500, well beyond the current cap of $25,000 per year"--Publisher's description.

Contents:

Preface

Figures

Tables

Summary

Acknowledgments

Abbreviations

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. Selected Previous Studies: Studies of Military Pilot Retention

A Forecast Pilot Shortage

Chapter 3. Sources of Pilot Supply: Civilian Flight Schools

ATP Certificate Holders Not Working for an Airline

Furloughed Pilots

Small Airlines

Military Pilots

Civilian Airlines' Seniority System

Chapter 4. Pilot Pay: Average Annual Salary of Pilots and Co-Pilots

2014 Pay Schedules at Major Airlines

A Projected Increase in Pilot Hourly Pay

Annual Earnings of Veterans Working as Pilots and Non-Pilots

An Expression for the Expected Present Discounted Value of Civilian Earnings

Chapter 5. Evidence Related to the Demand for Pilots: Trends in Airline Activity: Passenger and Cargo

Regression Models of Passenger and Cargo Miles

Forecasts of Passenger and Cargo Miles

Bankruptcies

The Coming Wave of Civilian Pilot Retirements

Pilot Attrition

Closing Comment

Chapter 6. Dynamic Retention Model Overview, Estimates, and Model Fits: Special and Incentive Pays for Rated Personnel

Dynamic Retention Model Overview

Estimating the Model

Parameter Estimates and Model Fit

Chapter 7. Simulations Results: Retention Effects of Increases in Expected Civilian Pilot Opportunities

Using Aviator Retention Pay to Offset Negative Retention Effects of Increases in Expected Civilian Pilot Opportunities

Eliminating Aviator Pay for Non-Flying Assignments

Chapter 8. Concluding Thoughts

APPENDIXES

References.