Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signalling in the New Era: An Analytic Framework and Seven Case Studies

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Nathan

Contributor:

Black, Marigold

Chase, Michael S.

Grossman, Derek

Gunness, Kristen

Simmons-Thomas, Natalia D.

Language:

English

Other Title:

Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signalling in the New Era

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. RAND Corporation 2021

Summary:

In Xi Jinping's 'new era', Chinese ambitions are increasingly global, its behaviour is increasingly aggressive, and its military is increasingly a leading edge of national power. China is also changing its approach to deterrence signalling in this 'new era' as it leverages growing military capabilities and the availability of new communication channels. This report is intended to help analysts and policymakers in Australia, the United States, and other countries better decipher Chinese deterrence signalling in this 'new era'. For China, deterrence (威慑, weishe) is not simply the objective of forestalling an adversary's undesired action, as in Western thinking—it also includes aspects of compellence, meaning that China often uses its military to coerce other countries to take actions Beijing desires. This report provides an analytic framework to interpret Chinese deterrence signalling and explores seven case studies of recent Chinese deterrence behaviour to illuminate what has stayed the same and what has changed in Chinese peacetime and crisis deterrence signalling. Overall, although China's capabilities and communication channels have changed, its fundamental approach to military deterrence signalling as a form of political coercion has not changed. Rather, Beijing is employing military deterrence signalling more frequently and in bolder ways to achieve its grander objectives. This means that analysts are likely to face an ever-greater task of deciphering this ever-expanding milieu to ensure that policymakers can separate the signal from the noise and respond to what matters (and look past what does not) to better manage future crises.