Philosophy and science of risk : an introduction / Isabelle Peschard, Yann Benétreau-Dupin and Christopher Wessels.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Peschard, Isabelle, author.

Benétreau-Dupin, Yann, author.

Wessels, Christopher, author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Risk.

Uncertainty.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xiii, 310 pages) : illustrations

Place of Publication:

Abingdon, Oxon, United Kingdom ; New York, New York : Routledge, 2023.

Summary:

What is risk? How do we assess risk? What are the ethical implications of risk? The concept of risk is important - sometimes even crucial - for many philosophical domains, from philosophy of science and technology to ethics and sustainability. Philosophy and Science of Risk is a clear, wide-ranging introduction to this urgent and fast-growing subject.-- Provided by publisher.

Contents:

General introduction

1 What is risk?

1.1 The many meanings of risk

1.2 The three dimensions of risk

1.2.1 Unwanted effect or harm

1.2.2 Uncertainty

1.2.3 Exposure

1.3 What is involved in the judgment of risk

1.3.1 Communication and its perils

1.3.2 Justification

1.4 Risk: a thick concept

1.4.1 Objective aspects of risk

1.4.2 Subjective aspects of risk

1.4.2.1 Values

1.4.2.2 Dependence on assessment

1.4.2.3 Dependence on exposure

1.4.2.4 Risk as prescription

1.5 Conclusion

Review questions

Discussion topics

Notes

References

2 Decision-making under risk

2.1 A questionable decision, after rational(?) deliberation

2.2 What does it mean to choose between two risky options?

2.3 Expected utility theory

2.3.1 Utilities and the decision matrix

2.3.2 Calculating the expected utility of each choice

2.3.3 Choices with multiple outcomes

2.4 Should the police officer have arrested you? Conditional probabilities and Bayes' theorem

2.4.1 Understanding conditional probability

2.4.2 Helping the policeman: Bayes' theorem

2.5 Expected utility theory and Bayesian probability as a general framework of decision-making under risk?

2.5.1 Avoiding the base rate fallacy

2.5.2 Defining and measuring utilities

2.5.3 Can money provide the universal utility unit?

2.5.4 Risk and cost-benefit analysis

2.5.5 Multivalued risk assessment?

2.6 Limitations of expected utility theory

2.6.1 The Allais paradox

2.6.2 The Ellsberg paradox

2.7 Psychological alternatives to expected utility theory

2.7.1 Prospect theory

2.7.2 Merits of the prospect theory

2.7.3 Limitations of prospect theory.

2.8 Conclusions: constraints, uses, and limitations of formal theories of decision-making

3 Risk assessment

3.1 Risk assessment and normativity

3.1.1 Epistemic normative judgments

3.1.2 Non-epistemic normative judgments

3.2 Risk assessment: probability and severity

3.3 Expected value as a model

3.4 Approaches to risk assessment

3.4.1 Three approaches to risk assessment

3.4.2 The role of expert judgment

3.4.2.1 How PRA developed in the nuclear industry

3.4.2.2 Learning from the Challenger disaster at NASA

3.4.2.3 Expert judgment, ineliminable

3.4.3 Assessing expertise: the challenge of calibration

3.4.3.1 Calibration

3.4.3.2 How well calibrated are experts in actual situations?

3.4.3.3 Risk expert as scientist

3.5 Assessing probability

3.5.1 Statistics-based vs. model-based assessment

3.5.2 Statistics-based probability

3.5.2.1 Reference class

3.5.2.2 Is exposure to risk a harm in itself?

3.5.2.3 The risk of being shot by the police: a case study

3.5.2.4 Inference and reference population

3.5.3 Model-based probability: selection of model attributes

3.5.3.1 Models and model evaluation: the example of weather forecasting

3.5.3.2 Stages in model construction: the example of wildfire forecasting

3.5.3.3 Normative judgments in causal modeling

3.6 Assessing severity

3.6.1 What kinds of "unwanted" consequences?

3.6.2 "Unwanted" consequences for whom?

3.6.3 Availability of information

3.7 Risk of error

3.7.1 Data, hypotheses, and underdetermination

3.7.2 Two types of error

3.7.3 Risk experts in the face of inductive risk

3.7.4 Normative judgments involved in risk assessment and error avoidance

3.8 Conclusion: normativity in scientific risk assessment

Reading questions.

Discussion topics

4 Risk perception

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Case study: how is risk of COVID-19 perceived?

4.2.1 Citizens' reaction to protective measures

4.2.2 How is risk perception studied?

4.2.2.1 Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world

4.2.2.2 Results of this study

4.2.2.3 Conclusion

4.3 Approaches to risk perception

4.3.1 Psychometric approach

4.3.1.1 The method

4.3.1.2 Benefit perception, trust, and acceptability

4.3.1.3 Risk factor space

4.3.1.4 Personal vs. general risk

4.3.1.5 The ecological fallacy

4.3.1.6 Conclusion

4.3.2 Social-cultural approach

4.3.2.1 Social-cultural theory

4.3.2.2 Cultural cognition hypothesis

4.3.2.3 Social network

4.3.2.4 Conclusion

4.3.3 Influence of moral judgments

4.3.3.1 Moral values in risk perception

4.3.3.2 Moral values in factual and interpretative judgment

4.3.4 Affects and emotions

4.3.4.1 A controversy about risk and feeling

4.3.4.2 Effect of fear on risk perception

4.3.4.3 Valence-based vs. appraisal-based approaches

4.4 Is risk perception "badly" subjective?

4.4.1 The many meanings of subjectivity

4.4.2 Not all risk perceptions are equal

4.5 Conclusion

5 Risk management

5.1 Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)

5.1.1 The method

Step 1: Identify the problem and determine the goal

Step 2: Identify policy alternatives, including no action

Step 3: Determine foreseeable impacts

Step 4: Assign values to impacts

5.1.2 Distributional analysis

5.1.2.1 Distribution of impacts of social distancing in the USA

5.1.2.2 Discussion

5.1.3 Democratizing the procedure

5.1.3.1 More deliberation

5.1.3.2 A role for emotions

5.2 The precautionary principle

5.2.1 The precautionary principle: numerous versions.

5.2.2 Different interpretations of the PP

5.2.2.1 As a rule of choice

5.2.2.2 As epistemic principle

5.2.2.3 As procedural requirement

5.2.2.4 Role of the PP as a procedural rule

5.2.3 The alternatives assessment (AA) approach

5.2.3.1 Difference in aim

5.2.3.2 Difference in method

5.2.4 Is AA an alternative to CBA?

5.3 Risk communication

5.3.1 Introduction

5.3.2 Challenges of risk perception for risk communicators

5.3.3 Information-deficit model of risk communication

5.3.4 From the public to the experts: participatory model

5.3.5 From the experts to the public: making uncertainty meaningful

5.4 Conclusion

Conclusion.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

0-429-02352-9

0-429-65739-0

9780429023521

OCLC:

1338843991