Space competition and the dynamics of conflict : using game theory and artificial intelligence to gain strategic insight / Bonnie Triezenberg, Krista Langeland, Bryce Downing.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Triezenberg, Bonnie L., author.

Langeland, Krista, author.

Downing, Bryce, author.

Contributor:

National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)

Rosengarten Family Fund.

United States. National Reconnaissance Office.

Series:

Research report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-A751-1.

Research report ; RR-A751-1

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Space race--Technological innovations--United States.

Space race.

Astronautics and state--United States.

Astronautics and state.

Space race--Mathematical models.

Physical Description:

xiii, 129 pages : color illustrations ; 23 cm.

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Corporation, [2022]

Summary:

Competition between great national powers has often played out in space. As it becomes increasingly militarized, understanding the long-term effect of nation-state investments in space security and subsequent use of products from those investments becomes strategically important. In 2014, the RAND Corporation began to develop a game-theoretic model to assess strategic implications of U.S. and a competitor nation's investments in space capabilities. In projects since, RAND researchers have built on traditional game theory to provide a context-rich assessment of how nation-state investments may play out over a range of possible futures. Although previous research using this model explored the effect of investments on deterring horizontal escalation of a terrestrial war into outer space, the authors focus here on the dynamics of space competition. They describe strategic interaction patterns, where possible; the conditions that give rise to them; and how investments shape those conditions. In many cases, they have yet to discover correlations between conditions in the game and resulting dynamics and strategic interaction patterns. To create a context-rich assessment of space competition, they developed a complex model using sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) methods. Although they found that this complexity adds context to their assessments of how investments may play out, it also hampered their ability to isolate the conditions that gave rise to different strategic interaction patterns. This report should be of interest to not only space policy decisionmakers but to anyone contemplating using AI models to perform exploratory research.

Contents:

Chapter One: Introduction

Chapter Two: Methodology

Chapter Three: Strategic Value of Defensive Investments and Considerations for Revealing Offensive Investments

Chapter Four: Characterizing Strategic Interaction Patterns

Chapter Five: Summary and Recommendations for Future Work

Appendix A: Overview of Project Phases

Appendix B: Game Structure and Methodology

Appendix C: Lessons Learned from Using Artificial Intelligence to Conduct Research.

Notes:

"RAND National Defense Research Institute".

"Prepared for the National Reconnaissance Office".

Includes bibliographical references.

Local Notes:

Acquired for the Penn Libraries with assistance from the Rosengarten Family Fund.

ISBN:

1977408095

9781977408099

OCLC:

1331704076