Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases / edited by Gerardo Chowell, James M. Hyman.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Chowell, Gerardo., Editor.

Hyman, James M., Editor.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Probabilities.

Infectious diseases.

Statistics.

Epidemiology.

Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes.

Infectious Diseases.

Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences.

Local Subjects:

Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes.

Infectious Diseases.

Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences.

Epidemiology.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (IX, 356 p. 94 illus., 63 illus. in color.)

Edition:

1st ed. 2016.

Place of Publication:

Cham : Springer International Publishing : Imprint: Springer, 2016.

Summary:

The contributions by epidemic modeling experts describe how mathematical models and statistical forecasting are created to capture the most important aspects of an emerging epidemic.Readers will discover a broad range of approaches to address questions, such as Can we control Ebola via ring vaccination strategies? How quickly should we detect Ebola cases to ensure epidemic control? What is the likelihood that an Ebola epidemic in West Africa leads to secondary outbreaks in other parts of the world? When does it matter to incorporate the role of disease-induced mortality on epidemic models? What is the role of behavior changes on Ebola dynamics? How can we better understand the control of cholera or Ebola using optimal control theory? How should a population be structured in order to mimic the transmission dynamics of diseases such as chlamydia, Ebola, or cholera? How can we objectively determine the end of an epidemic? How can we use metapopulation models to understand the role of movement restrictions and migration patterns on the spread of infectious diseases? How can we capture the impact of household transmission using compartmental epidemic models? How could behavior-dependent vaccination affect the dynamical outcomes of epidemic models? The derivation and analysis of the mathematical models addressing these questions provides a wide-ranging overview of the new approaches being created to better forecast and mitigate emerging epidemics. This book will be of interest to researchers in the field of mathematical epidemiology, as well as public health workers.

Contents:

Preface

A Reality of Its Own

Modeling the Impact of Behavior Change on the Spread of Ebola

A model for coupled outbreaks contained by behavior change

Real-time assessment of the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak

Modeling the case of early detection of Ebola virus disease

Modeling ring vaccination strategies to control Ebola virus disease epidemics

Estimation of the number of sickbeds during Ebola epidemics using optimal control theory

Inverse problems and Ebola virus disease using an age of infection model

Assessing the Efficiency of Movement

Restriction as a Control Strategy of Ebola

Patch models of EVD transmission dynamics

From bee species aggregation to models of disease avoidance: The \emph{Ben-Hur} effect}

Designing Public Health Policies to Mitigate the Adverse Consequences of Rural-Urban Migration via Meta-Population Modeling

Age of Infection Epidemic Models

Optimal Control of Vaccination in an Age-Structured Cholera Model

A Multi-risk Model for Understanding the Spread of Chlamydia

The 1997 Measles Outbreak in Metropolitan São Paulo, Brazil: Strategic Implications of Increasing Urbanization

Methods to determine the end of an infectious disease epidemic: A short review

Statistical considerations in infectious disease randomized controlled trials

Epidemic models with and without mortality: when does it matter?- Capturing Household Transmission in Compartmental Models of Infectious Disease

Bistable endemic states in a Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible model with behavior-dependent Vaccination

Index.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters and index.

ISBN:

3-319-40413-X