Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia : The Role of Ground Forces in Preventing Hostile Measures Below Armed Conflict in Europe / STEPHEN WATTS, BRYAN ROONEY, GENE GERMANOVICH, BRUCE McCLINTOCK, STEPHANIE PEZARD, CLINT REACH, MELISSA SHOSTAK.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Watts, Stephen, author.

Contributor:

John G. Hartman Memorial Library Fund.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Deterrence (Strategy).

Escalation (Military science).

Military relations.

United States--Military relations--Russia (Federation).

United States.

Russia (Federation).

Russia (Federation)--Military relations--United States.

Physical Description:

xxiv, 270 pages ; 26 cm

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND, [2022]

Summary:

The deterrence of armed conflict has been studied intensively for decades, as have escalation dynamics along the path to such conflicts. The deterrence of forms of aggression below the level of armed conflict-such hostile measures as economic coercion, political subversion, and military intimidation-has received much less attention. In this report, the authors investigate how the United States might use its military posture in Europe (specifically, ground forces) as part of a strategy to deter these Russian malign activities. The authors identify how forward posture could deter hostile measures through signaling the United States' commitment to its allies and partners, providing irregular capabilities for those partners and allies threatened with political subversion, providing conventional capabilities to neutralize hostile powers' coercion attempts, and providing support for other instruments of U.S. power, such as sanctions. However, forward posture can also lead to an escalation in competitor activities, increasing their sense of threat, incentivizing partners to undertake aggression at levels below armed conflict, and incentivizing third parties to act in ways that increase the likelihood of confrontation. The authors propose ways to calibrate U.S. forward posture to minimize such risks while enhancing deterrence.

Contents:

Chapter One: Introduction

Chapter Two: Contending Perspectives on Competition

Chapter Three: A Framework for Understanding Deterrence in Competition

Chapter Four: Quantitative Historical Analysis

Chapter Five: Case Studies

Chapter Six: Scenario-Based Analysis

Chapter Seven: Conclusion

Appendix A: Workshop and Interview Participants

Appendix B: Technical Discussion of Quantitative Analysis.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 255-270).

Local Notes:

Acquired for the Penn Libraries with assistance from the John G. Hartman Memorial Library Fund.

ISBN:

1977407781

9781977407788

OCLC:

1294427543