Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk analysis / Jack W. Baker, Stanford University, California, Brendon A. Bradley, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, Peter J. Stafford, Imperial College London, United Kingdom.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Baker, Jack W., author.

Bradley, Brendon A. (Brendon Archie), author.

Stafford, Peter J. (Geoscientist), author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Earthquake hazard analysis.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xii, 581 pages) : digital, PDF file(s).

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2021.

Summary:

Seismic hazard and risk analyses underpin the loadings prescribed by engineering design codes, the decisions by asset owners to retrofit structures, the pricing of insurance policies, and many other activities. This is a comprehensive overview of the principles and procedures behind seismic hazard and risk analysis. It enables readers to understand best practises and future research directions. Early chapters cover the essential elements and concepts of seismic hazard and risk analysis, while later chapters shift focus to more advanced topics. Each chapter includes worked examples and problem sets for which full solutions are provided online. Appendices provide relevant background in probability and statistics. Computer codes are also available online to help replicate specific calculations and demonstrate the implementation of various methods. This is a valuable reference for upper level students and practitioners in civil engineering, and earth scientists interested in engineering seismology.

Contents:

Cover

Half-title

Title page

Copyright information

Contents

Preface

1 Introduction

1.1 Hazard and Risk Analysis

1.2 Uses of Hazard and Risk Information

1.3 Deterministic Analysis

1.4 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

1.5 Probabilistic Risk Analysis

1.6 Benefits of Probabilistic Analysis

1.7 Uncertainties in Probabilistic Analysis

1.8 Validation

Part I Hazard Inputs

2 Seismic Source Characterization

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Earth Structure and Plate Tectonics

2.3 Faults

2.4 Earthquake Processes

2.5 Earthquake Size

2.6 Definitions of Seismic Sources

2.7 Source Characteristics

2.8 Conceptual Development of SSMs

Exercises

3 Characterization of Earthquake Rates and Rupture Scenarios

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Approaches to Determining Rupture Rates

3.3 Constraints from Seismicity Data

3.4 Geological Constraints on Activity

3.5 Magnitude-Frequency Distributions

3.6 Rupture Scenarios and Computation of Rates

3.7 Generation of Rupture Scenarios

3.8 Time-Dependent Rupture Rates

4 Empirical Ground-Motion Characterization

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Engineering Characterization of Ground Motion

4.3 Ground-Motion Databases

4.4 Mathematical Representation

4.5 General Trends in Empirical Data and Models

4.6 Prediction Using Empirical GMMs

4.7 Epistemic Uncertainty

4.8 Limitations of Empirical GMMs

5 Physics-Based Ground-Motion Characterization

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Utility of Physics-Based Ground-Motion Simulation

5.3 Earthquake Source Representation

5.4 Seismic Wave Propagation

5.5 Methods for Physics-Based Ground-Motion Simulation

5.6 Prediction Using Physics-Based GMMs

Part II Hazard Calculations

6 PSHA Calculation

6.1 Introduction

6.2 The PSHA Calculation.

6.3 Example Calculations

6.4 Hazard Curve Metrics

6.5 Sensitivity of Hazard Results to Inputs

6.6 Model Uncertainty

6.7 Logic Trees

6.8 PSHA with Epistemic Uncertainty

6.9 Monte Carlo PSHA

6.10 Discussion

7 PSHA Products

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Disaggregation

7.3 Uniform Hazard Spectrum

7.4 Hazard Maps

7.5 Conditional Spectrum

7.6 Vector PSHA

7.7 Earthquake Sequences in PSHA

7.8 Implementation and Documentation of Hazard Studies

8 Non-Ergodic Hazard Analysis

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Fundamental Concepts

8.3 Aleatory Variability versus Epistemic Uncertainty

8.4 When Can Non-Ergodic Approaches Be Applied?

8.5 Non-Ergodic Ground-Motion Models

8.6 Non-Ergodic Site Effects

8.7 Non-Ergodic Path Effects

8.8 Non-Ergodic Source Effects

8.9 Non-Ergodic Components in Seismic-Source Models

Part III Risk

9 Seismic Risk

9.1 Introduction

9.2 Fragility and Vulnerability Functions

9.3 Calibrating Fragility and Vulnerability Functions

9.4 Risk Metrics

9.5 PEER Framework

9.6 Epistemic Uncertainty

9.7 Risk-Targeted Ground-Motion Intensity

10 Ground-Motion Selection

10.1 Introduction

10.2 Principles of Hazard-Consistent Ground-Motion Selection

10.3 Target Intensity Measure Distributions

10.4 Selection Algorithms

10.5 Assessing Accuracy and Precision of Seismic Responses

10.6 Application-Specific Decisions

10.7 Design Code and Guideline Requirements

10.8 Documentation

11 Spatially Distributed Systems

11.1 Introduction

11.2 Parameterization Using Empirical Ground-Motion Models

11.3 Parameterization Using Physics-Based Simulations

11.4 Numerical Implementation

11.5 Coherency

11.6 Risk

12 Validation

12.1 Introduction.

12.2 Verification and Validation

12.3 Validation from Limited Observations

12.4 Direct Validation of Seismic Hazard Curves

12.5 Validation of Model Components

12.6 Do Failures of Past Calculations Invalidate the PSHA Methodology?

12.7 Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis for Decision-Making

Appendix A Basics of Probability

A.1 Random Events

A.2 Conditional Probability

A.3 Random Variables

A.4 Expectations and Moments

A.5 Common Probability Distributions

A.6 Random Number Generation

Appendix B Basics of Statistics for Model Calibration

B.1 Confidence Intervals for the Sample Mean and Standard Deviation

B.2 Hypothesis Testing for Statistical Significance

B.3 Statistical Estimation of m[sub(max)]

B.4 Bayesian Estimation of m[sub(max)]

B.5 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Seismicity Parameters

B.6 Empirical GMM Calibration

B.7 Estimation of IM Correlations from GMMs

B.8 Fragility Function Fitting

References

List of Symbols and Abbreviations

Notation Conventions

Index.

Notes:

Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 20 Dec 2021).

ISBN:

9781108570848

1108570844

9781108604901

1108604900

9781108348157

1108348157

OCLC:

1288827699