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A Structured Elicitation Approach to Identify Technology-Based Challenges With Application to Inform Force Planning for Technological Surprise / Lauren A. Mayer [and three others].
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Mayer, Lauren A., author.
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- United States--Armed Forces--Operational readiness.
- United States.
- Information technology--Military aspects--United States.
- Information technology.
- Military planning--United States.
- Military planning.
- Physical Description:
- xxvii, 76 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm
- Place of Publication:
- Santa Monica, CA : RAND, [2021]
- Summary:
- This report describes an approach developed to elicit from experts ideas for technology-based challenges that the U.S. Joint Force could confront in the year 2040, as well as results from employing this approach with internal RAND Corporation experts. The approach begins with conducting and qualitatively analyzing a set of exploratory interviews with experts, which in turn informs an open-ended survey to nominate challenges and a close-ended survey to evaluate those challenges. Applying this approach with RAND experts generated 20 challenges. Evaluation of those challenges produced three general clusters: a top cluster with nine challenges that experts believed need urgent science and technology (S&T) investments, should be a major national defense priority, might have impacts with severe consequences, and overall were higher risk to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and the United States; a middle cluster with seven challenges that experts believed might have impacts with severe consequences but did not significantly need urgent S&T investment or need to be a major defense national priority; and a bottom cluster with four challenges that experts did not believe had significance across the dimensions the authors measured.
- Contents:
- Machine generated contents note: ch. One Introduction
- Existing Approaches to Prioritizing Technology-Initiated Challenges
- Structured Elicitation Approach
- ch. Two Exploratory Interviews
- Expert Interviewee Selection
- Approach in Detail
- Qualitative Analysis of Interviews: Results
- ch. Three Challenge Nominations
- Expert Nominator Selection
- Challenge Nomination Results
- ch. Four Challenge Evaluation
- Expert Evaluator Selection
- Challenge Evaluation Results
- ch. Five Discussion
- Challenge Evaluation
- Generalized Use of the Mixed-Method Approach for Targeted "Crowdsourcing"
- APPENDIXES
- A. Exploratory Interview Materials
- B. Challenge Nomination and Evaluation Materials
- C. Selected Nominated Challenges
- D. Descriptive Statistics of Challenge Evaluation Results.
- Notes:
- Title from PDF document (title page; viewed October 14, 2021)
- "Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense"
- "RAND NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE"
- Includes bibliographical references (pages 75-76).
- Supersedes RAND/DRR-A701-1
- ISBN:
- 9781977407375
- 1977407374
- OCLC:
- 1281912047
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