Anticipating adversary military interventions / Jennifer Kavanagh, Bryan Frederick, Nathan Chandler, Samuel Charap, Timothy R. Heath, Ariane M. Tabatabi, Edward Geist, Christian Curriden.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Kavanagh, Jennifer, author.

Frederick, Bryan, author.

Chandler, Nathan, author.

Charap, Samuel, 1980- author.

Heath, Timothy R., author.

Tabatabai, Ariane M., author.

Geist, Edward, author.

Curriden, Christian, author.

Contributor:

Rand Corporation, publisher.

Series:

Research report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-A444-1.

Research report ; RR-A444-1

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Intervention (International law)--Government policy--United States.

Intervention (International law).

Intervention (International law)--Decision making.

Intervention (International law)--History.

History.

Decision making.

Government policy.

United States.

Genre:

Case studies.

History.

Physical Description:

xxix, 173 pages : color illustrations ; 23 cm.

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Corporation, [2021]

Summary:

Concern about the potential for military interventions by U.S. adversaries to affect U.S. interests has risen over the past decade, driven by high-profile interventions, such as the Russian missions in Ukraine and Syria, Iranian activity in Iraq and Syria, and expanding Chinese military activity in Africa. Despite these concerns, relatively little is known about the intervention behavior of these countries. There are many reasons for U.S. policymakers to be concerned about the interventions of adversaries. First, adversary interventions might pursue outcomes that undermine U.S. interests. Second, adversary interventions might affect the activities and objectives of U.S. forces when they intervene in the same places. Finally, adversary interventions may directly threaten U.S. forces or U.S. allies. In this report, the authors explore where, how, and how often U.S. adversaries (specifically, Russia, China, and Iran) have intervened militarily since 1946 and identify why these adversaries have initiated military interventions and why they might do so in the future. Three companion reports consider Chinese, Russian, and Iranian military intervention behavior. The insights and signposts identified can inform U.S. decisions about military posture, partnerships, and investments.

Contents:

Introduction

Why Do States Intervene? A Summary of Past Research

A Quantitative Look at Adversary Military Interventions

Summary of Factors Driving Adversary Interventions

Summary, Signposts, and Implications

Appendix A: Full List of Adversary Intervention Cases

Appendix B: Coding of Adversary Case Studies

Appendix C: Key Factors for Other U.S. Adversaries.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 159-173).

ISBN:

9781977406040

1977406041

OCLC:

1280905715