The power of polls? : a cross-national experimental analysis of the effects of campaign polls / Jason Roy, Shane P. Singh, Patrick Fournier.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Roy, Jason J., 1974- author.

Singh, Shane P., author.

Fournier, Patrick, author.

Series:

Elements in Campaigns and Elections.

Cambridge elements. Elements in campaigns and elections 2633-0970

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Public opinion polls--Political aspects--Cross-cultural studies.

Public opinion polls.

Election monitoring.

Election forecasting.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (77 pages) : digital, PDF file(s).

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2021.

Summary:

Public opinion polls have become increasingly prominent during elections, but how they affect voting behaviour remains uncertain. In this work, we estimate the effects of poll exposure using an experimental design in which we randomly assign the availability of polls to participants in simulated election campaigns. We draw upon results from ten independent experiments conducted across six countries on four continents (Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) to examine how polls affect the amount of information individuals seek and the votes that they cast. We further assess how poll effects differ according to individual-level factors, such as partisanship and political sophistication, and the content included in polls and how it is presented. Our work provides a comprehensive assessment of the power of polls and the implications for poll reporting in contemporary elections.

Contents:

Cover

Title page

Copyright page

The Power of Polls?: A Cross-National Experimental Analysis of the Effects of Campaign Polls

Contents

1. Do Polls Matter?

1.1. Past Research on the Influence of Polls on Citizens

1.2. Theoretical Grounding and Hypotheses

1.3. Our Empirical Strategy

1.4. Outline of the Book

2. Methodology and Measurement

2.1. The Studies

2.2. Models and Measurement

2.2.1. Information Search

2.2.2. Vote Choice

2.3. Presentation of Results

3. The Effects of Polls on the Search for Campaign Information

3.1. Do Polls Lead Voters to Seek Less Information?

3.2. Effects by Party

3.3. Individual-Level Conditioners: Party Identification, Political Sophistication, and Confidence in Polls

3.4. The Influence of Poll Content and Presentation

3.5. Summary

4. The Effects of Polls on Vote Choice

4.1. A Test of the Bandwagon Effect

4.2. Effects by Party

4.3. Individual-Level Conditioners: Party Identification, Political Sophistication, and Confidence in Polls

4.4. The Influence of Poll Content and Presentation

4.5. Summary

5. Conclusion

5.1. Review of Our Findings

5.2. Did We Underestimate Poll Effects?

5.3. Implications for Electoral Policy and Academic Research

References

Acknowledgments.

Notes:

Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 27 Sep 2021).

ISBN:

1-108-89049-0

1-108-89213-2

1-108-87742-7

OCLC:

1285168516