Global Productivity : Trends, Drivers, and Policies / Alistair Dieppe.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Dieppe, Alistair.

Contributor:

Dieppe, Alistair, editor.

Series:

World Bank e-Library.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic history--21st century.

Economic history.

Industrial productivity.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (460 pages)

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2021.

System Details:

data file

Summary:

The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President's Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition-slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD.

Contents:

Cover

Half Title

Title

Copyright

Summary of Contents

Contents

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Authors

Abbreviations

Introduction

Motivation

Key findings and policy messages

Implications of COVID-19 for productivity

Synopsis

Future research directions

References

PART I: Productivity: Trends and Explanations

Chapter 1 Global Productivity Trends

Evolution of productivity

Sources of the slowdown in labor productivity growth after the GFC

Drivers of productivity growth synchronization

Conclusion

Annex 1A: Cyclical and technology-driven labor productivity developments

Chapter 2 What Explains Productivity Growth

Long-run drivers

Summary of stylized facts

Analyzing the effects of drivers

Developments in drivers of productivity

Outlook

Policy priorities

Annex 2A: Partial correlations

Annex 2B: Long-run regressions

Chapter 3 What Happens to Productivity during Major Adverse Events

Adverse events: Literature and stylized facts

Measuring the impact of adverse events on productivity

What policies can mitigate the effects of adverse events?

Annex 3A: Data, sources, and definitions

Annex 3B: Robustness

Annex 3C: Methodology

Chapter 4 Productivity Convergence: Is Anyone Catching Up?

How has productivity convergence evolved?

Testing for convergence and its pace

Convergence clubs

Conclusion and policy implications

Annex 4A: Solow-Swan growth model

Annex 4B: Data

Annex 4C: Beta-convergence testing

Annex 4D: Estimating convergence clubs: Commonalities in productivity levels

Annex 4E: Convergence clubs with common productivity trajectories.

Annex 4F: Productivity measurement: PPP vs. market exchange rates

PART II: Regional Dimensions of Productivity

Chapter 5 Regional Productivity: Trends, Explanations, and Policies

Evolution of productivity across regions

Sources of, and bottlenecks to, regional productivity growth

East Asia and Pacific

Europe and Central Asia

Latin America and the Caribbean

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

PART III: Technological Change and Sectoral Shifts

Chapter 6 Productivity: Technology, Demand, and Employment Trade-Offs

Drivers of productivity: Technology vs. demand shocks

Effects of technology shocks

Effects of demand shocks

Annex 6A: SVAR identification of technology drivers of productivity

Annex 6B: Commodity-driven productivity developments

Annex 6C: Commodity-driven productivity developments: Methodology

Chapter 7 Sectoral Sources of Productivity Growth

Sectoral productivity gaps

Sectoral productivity growth

Policy implications

Annex 7A: Data and methodology

Annex 7B: Marginal productivity gap

Annex 7C: Firm TFP data, estimates, and methodology

Boxes

Box 1.1 Productivity: Conceptual considerations and measurement challenges

Box 2.1 Review of recent firm-level total factor productivity literature

Box 3.1 How do epidemics affect productivity?

Box 6.1 Do productivity-enhancing improvements in technology threaten jobs?

Box 7.1 Patterns of total factor productivity: A firm-level perspective

Figures

Figure 1 Productivity

Figure 2 Productivity trends

Figure 3 Productivity growth performance and initial conditions

Figure 4 Productivity after major adverse events.

Figure 5 Unconditional, conditional, and club productivity convergence

Figure 6 Regional productivity developments

Figure 7 Employment and technological change

Figure 8 Sectoral productivity developments

Figure 1.1 Evolution of global productivity growth

Figure 1.2 Poverty, productivity, and missed opportunities

Figure 1.3 Growth accounting decomposition

Figure B1.1.1 Labor productivity decomposition and natural capital in EMDEs

Figure 1.4 Sectoral contributions to the postcrisis productivity slowdown

Figure 1.5 Role of cyclical factors in the GFC productivity slowdown

Figure 1.6 Synchronization of productivity measures: 10-year rolling correlations

Figure 1.7 Synchronization of productivity measures: Five-year rolling correlations

Figure 2.1 Innovation

Figure 2.2 Education

Figure 2.3 Health and demography

Figure 2.4 Institutional quality and price stability

Figure 2.5 Income and gender equality

Figure 2.6 Trade and foreign direct investment

Figure 2.7 Urbanization and financial development

Figure 2.8 Productivity growth performance and key initial conditions

Figure 2.9 Impact of drivers on productivity growth

Figure 2.10 Pre-GFC developments in productivity drivers and productivity growth

Figure 2.11 Post-GFC slowdown of the drivers of productivity growth

Figure 2.12 EMDE infrastructure and education gaps

Figure 2.13 Developments in financial and government technology

Figure 2.14 Effects of reforms in EMDEs

Figure 3.1 Global occurrence of major adverse events, 1960-2018

Figure 3.2 Episodes of natural disaster

Figure 3.3 Correlations between natural disaster frequency and productivity growth

Figure B3.1.1 Severity of pandemics, epidemics, and climate disasters

Figure B3.1.2 Severe disasters and productivity

Figure B3.1.3 Impact of epidemics.

Figure 3.4 Episodes of war

Figure 3.5 Correlations between war frequency and productivity growth

Figure 3.6 Episodes of financial crisis

Figure 3.7 Correlations between financial crisis frequency and productivity growth

Figure 3.8 Episodes across different types of events

Figure 3.9 Estimated effects of natural disaster episodes on productivity

Figure 3.10 Estimated effects of war episodes on productivity in EMDEs

Figure 3.11 Estimated effects of financial crisis episodes on labor productivity

Figure 3.12 Comparison of estimated effects in EMDEs

Figure 3.13 Productivity loss in EMDEs, scaled by event frequency

Figure 3.14 Productivity loss, taking account of fiscal space in EMDEs

Figure 3A.1 Time series of number of occurrences, by income group

Figure 4.1 Labor productivity gaps

Figure 4.2 Evolution of labor productivity gaps

Figure 4.3 Conditional and unconditional convergence

Figure 4.4 Convergence club memberships

Figure 4.5 Convergence clubs of productivity trajectories

Figure 4.6 Key characteristics of convergence clubs

Figure 4.7 Characteristics associated with convergence club membership

Figure 4.8 Characteristics of EMDEs transitioning to the highest convergence club

Figure 4.9 Covariates of EMDEs joining top-tier convergence club

Figure 4D.1 Convergence clubs at specific points in time

Figure 4D.2 Characteristics of convergence clubs (mixture model)

Figure 4F.1 PPP-adjusted productivity gaps

Figure 4F.2 PPP-adjusted growth differentials

Figure 5.1 Evolution of regional productivity in EMDE regions

Figure 5.2 Sectoral contributions to regional productivity growth in EMDE regions

Figure 5.3 Potential bottlenecks to productivity growth in EMDE regions

Figure 5.4 Productivity in EAP in regional comparison

Figure 5.5 Evolution of productivity in EAP.

Figure 5.6 Factors underlying productivity growth in EAP

Figure 5.7 Drivers of productivity growth in EAP

Figure 5.8 Prospects for productivity growth in EAP

Figure 5.9 Productivity in ECA in regional comparison

Figure 5.10 Evolution of productivity in ECA

Figure 5.11 Factors supporting productivity growth in ECA

Figure 5.12 Drivers of productivity growth in ECA in regional comparison

Figure 5.13 Drivers of productivity growth in ECA

Figure 5.14 Productivity in LAC in regional comparison

Figure 5.15 Evolution of labor productivity growth in LAC

Figure 5.16 Sources of productivity growth in LAC

Figure 5.17 Sectoral productivity in LAC

Figure 5.18 Drivers of productivity growth in LAC in regional comparison

Figure 5.19 Drivers of productivity growth in LAC

Figure 5.20 Productivity in MNA in regional comparison

Figure 5.21 Evolution of labor productivity growth in MNA

Figure 5.22 Factors supporting productivity growth in MNA

Figure 5.23 Policy challenges in MNA

Figure 5.24 Evolution of productivity growth in SAR

Figure 5.25 Sectoral productivity and employment in SAR

Figure 5.26 Drivers of productivity growth in SAR

Figure 5.27 Policy challenges in SAR

Figure 5.28 Productivity prospects in SAR

Figure 5.29 Constraints to productivity growth in SAR

Figure 5.30 Productivity in SSA in regional comparison

Figure 5.31 Evolution of labor productivity growth in SSA

Figure 5.32 Sectoral productivity growth in SSA

Figure 5.33 Drivers of productivity growth in SSA

Figure 5.34 Prospects for productivity growth in SSA

Figure 6.1 Global labor productivity surges and declines

Figure 6.2 Decomposition of labor productivity variation

Figure 6.3 Contribution of cyclicality to labor productivity slowdown

Figure 6.4 Productivity effects of technology shocks.

Figure 6.5 Employment effects of technology developments.

Notes:

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

1-78785-987-8

1-4648-1609-3

OCLC:

1259320081

Publisher Number:

10.1596/978-1-4648-1608-6