Structural change and moderating growth in the people's Republic of China : implications for developing Asia and beyond / Asian Development Bank.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Asian Development Bank, author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic development--China.

Economic development.

China--Economic conditions.

China.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (50 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Metro Manila, Philippines : Asian Development Bank, 2016.

Summary:

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is undergoing several structural and cyclical changes, which have wide-ranging implications for economic activity in the PRC, the rest of developing Asia, and the world. This report assesses the effects of these changes by looking closely at various channels of transmission including commodity prices, trade, and production. The PRC's continued growth moderation could knock off a third of a percentage point a year in growth for the rest of developing Asia over the next 2 years. This report discusses how developing Asia's policy -makers can respond to the challenges and opportunities presented by these changes.

Contents:

Cover

Title

Copyright

Contents

Tables, Figures, and Boxes

Acknowledgments

Highlights

1 The World's Economic Engine is Changing and Slowing

Fundamental changes are underway in the People's Republic of China

These changes have substantial implications for growth

There is a low-probability risk of a sharper slowdown

2 Implications of the People's Republic of China's Growth Moderation for the Rest of the World and Developing Asia

Spillovers from gradual growth moderation

What a sharp slowdown could look like: An event study analysis

3 The Impact on Commodity Prices and Commodity Exporters

Introduction

The People's Republic of China's impact on commodity prices

How a shock on People's Republic of China activity impacts commodity prices

The impact of People's Republic of China moderation on commodity-exporting countries in developing Asia

Discussion and conclusions

4 Spillovers through Trade and Production Linkages

The trade channel approach: A panel regression approach

Understanding sectoral effects: Analysis using world input-output data

Looking forward: Shifting patterns of trade from the People's Republic of China's Belt and Road Initiative

5 Challenges and Opportunities for Developing Asia

Technical Appendix

References

Tables

1 Magnitudes of growth decelerations during disorderly slowdowns

2 Share of selected global commodities, PRC

3 Selected developing Asian economies and their main primary exports, 2013

4 Impulse response function of a shock to PRC industrial production

5 Terms of trade estimation results

6 Growth panel regression results

7 Change in the total terms of trade and TOT effects, selected developing Asian economies.

8 Growth effects via exports to the PRC, selected developing Asian economies

9 Panel analysis with a fixed effect model: The effect of a PRC slowdown

10 Top BRI country destinations of the PRC's outward FDI

Box Table

Visitor arrivals from the PRC to selected Pacific destinations

Appendix Tables

A1 Structural break tests

A2 Unit root tests with Flexible Fourier Form

Figures

1 Working age population growth and old-age dependency, PRC

2 Shares in nominal GDP, PRC

3 Contributions to GDP growth, PRC

4 Average monthly factory worker wage, 2014

5 Volume of trade in goods and services

6 PRC's growth and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts

7 GDP growth performance, PRC

8 Share of global GDP, PRC

9 Total social financing, PRC

10 Loans from shadow banks, PRC

11 Total debt, PRC

12 General government gross debt (2015), selected developing Asian economies

13 Foreign exchange reserves, PRC

14 Oil price assumptions

15 Effects of a gradual growth moderation in the PRC

16 Median growth rates of GDP demand components following disorderly slowdowns

17 US Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, 2004-present

18 Effects of a sharp growth decline in the PRC

19 Commodity prices approximated by Flexible Fourier Form

20 Commodity exports to the PRC of selected developing Asian countries, 2013

21 Effects on commodity-exporting DMCs of a 1 percentage point decline in the PRC growth

22 Composition of developing Asia's exports to the PRC ( billion)

23 Composition of developing Asia's exports to the PRC (% of total exports)

24 Developing Asia's exports to the PRC (% of total exports)

25 Developing Asia's exports to the PRC (% of GDP)

26 Exports of developing Asia to advanced economies and the PRC.

27 Impact of 1 percentage point growth slowdown in the PRC on the rest of developing Asia, 2007-2012

28 Impact of 1 percentage point growth slowdown in the PRC on selected developing Asian economies, 2007-2012

29 Sectoral impact of a PRC slowdown for selected developing Asian countries

30 Developing Asia: Index of competition with the PRC, 2014

A1 Commodity Prices Demarcating Structural Breaks

Box Figures

1 Pacific trade with the PRC

2 Papua New Guinea: export price indexes

3 Timor-Leste: Petroleum revenues

4 Visitor arrivals in Palau by source.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on print version record.