What deters and why : applying a framework to assess deterrence of gray zone aggression / Michael J. Mazarr, Joe Cheravitch, Jeffrey W. Hornung, Stephanie Pezard.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Mazarr, Michael J., 1965- author.

Chan, Arthur (Of Rand Corporation), author.

Cheravitch, Joe, author.

Hornung, Jeffrey W., 1975- author.

Pézard, Stéphanie, author.

Contributor:

Arroyo Center. Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program.

Rand Corporation.

United States. Army.

Series:

Research report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-3142-A.

[Research report (Rand Corporation)] ; RR-3142-A

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Deterrence (Strategy)--Evaluation.

Deterrence (Strategy).

Deterrence (Strategy)--Government policy--United States.

Government policy.

Evaluation.

United States.

Physical Description:

xxi, 117 pages : color illustrations, color map ; 26 cm.

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Corporation, [2021]

Summary:

In an era of rising global competition, U.S. challengers and rivals are increasingly looking to achieve competitive advantage through gray zone activities-that is, acts of aggression that remain below the threshold of outright warfare. In this report, RAND researchers identify eight common characteristics of such aggression (e.g., unfolds gradually, is not attributable) and develop a framework for assessing the health of U.S. and partner deterrence in the gray zone. They apply the framework to three cases: China's aggression against the Senkaku Islands, Russia's aggression against the Baltic states, and North Korea's aggression against South Korea. The authors conclude that U.S. and partner deterrence of gray zone activities is in a reasonably strong, though mixed, condition in each of these three contexts. Finally, the authors outline the implications of their findings for the U.S. Army. Among these implications are that maintaining a local presence and posture plays an important role in conveying likely responses to aggression, and clear statements of shared intent to respond to specific actions are critical.

Contents:

A Framework for Evaluating Gray Zone Deterrence

Deterring China's Gray Zone Aggression Against the Senkaku Islands

Deterring Russia's Gray Zone Aggression Against the Baltic States

Deterring North Korea's Gray Zone Aggression Against South Korea

Conclusions and Implications for the U.S. Army

APPENDIX: South Korea's Policy of Disproportionate Retaliation.

Notes:

"RAND ARROYO CENTER."

"Prepared for the United States Army."

Includes bibliographical references (pages 103-117).

See also RAND/RR-3144-A.

ISBN:

9781977403971

1977403972

OCLC:

1249566041