Modeling populations of adaptive individuals / Steven F. Railsback, Bret C. Harvey.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Railsback, Steven F. (Steven Floyd), 1957- author.

Harvey, Bret C., 1958- author.

Series:

Monographs in population biology ; 63.

Monographs in population biology ; 63

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Population biology--Mathematical models.

Population biology.

Ecology.

Adaptation (Biology).

Physical Description:

xiv, 173 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm.

Place of Publication:

Princeton, New Jersey : Princeton University Press, [2020]

Summary:

"This book offers a new theory for modeling how organisms make tradeoff decisions and how these decisions affect both individuals and populations. Tradeoff decisions (or behaviors) are those that are optimize survival and include behaviors like foraging and reproduction. Existing theories have not painted a complete picture of tradeoff decisions because they only observe how the decisions of an individual affect them rather than how individuals impact, and are impacted by, the behavior of their communities. The authors' theory-which they call state and prediction based theory-uses individual-based models since these models show the complex ways that organisms relate to their environment. The authors' broader approach, one that integrates behavior and population dynamics, allows ecologists to see how individuals make adaptive tradeoff decisions. In simpler terms, this theory does not assume, as the previous models do, that future conditions are fixed, known, and unaffected by the behavior of others. Instead, the authors assume individuals make decisions like people do, which is by forecasting future conditions, using approximation to make good decisions, and updating their choices as conditions change"-- Provided by publisher.

Contents:

1 Adaptive Individuals and Population Ecology p. 1

1.1 Adaptive Trade-Off Behavior and Ecology p. 1

1.2 Modeling Systems of Adaptive Individuals p. 4

1.3 Adaptive Behavior in Individual-Based Models p. 7

1.4 Adaptive Behavior, Physiology, and Neurobiology p. 10

1.5 What We Need to Link Behavioral and Population Ecology: Across-Level Theory p. 12

1.6 State- and Prediction-Based Theory (SPT) p. 13

1.7 Monograph Objectives and Overview p. 14

2 Case Study: Modeling Trout Population Response to River Management p. 17

2.1 Introduction and Model Purpose p. 17

2.2 Adaptive Behavior in the Trout Model: Habitat Selection p. 19

2.3 A Second Adaptive Behavior: Activity Selection p. 24

3 Introduction to State- and Prediction-Based Theory p. 29

3.1 What Is SPT? p. 29

3.2 Five Steps for Implementing SPT p. 30

4 A First Example: Forager Patch Selection p. 35

4.2 The Model p. 35

4.3 Results and Comparison of SPT to Dynamic State Variable Modeling p. 39

4.4 Version 2: Foraging with Competition p. 44

4.5 Version 3: Continuous Starvation Risk p. 47

5 A Second Example: Vertical Migration and Reproductive Effort in Daphnia p. 52

5.2 The Model p. 54

5.3 SPT Version 1: Expected Future Reproduction with Current Growth and Survival p. 61

5.4 SPT Version 2: Predicted Offspring p. 64

5.5 SPT Version 3: Diurnal Prediction p. 67

5.6 Prediction Complexity and Fitness: Population Simulations p. 68

6 Example Three: Temporal Patterns in Limpet Foraging p. 73

6.1 Background and Objectives p. 73

6.2 The DSVM Model of Limpet Foraging p. 74

6.3 The Model p. 75

6.4 SPT Version 1: Maximizing Short-Term Expected Energy Reserves p. 79

6.5 SPT Version 2: Maximizing Mean Expected Energy Reserves until Day's End p. 81

7 Example Four: Facultative Anadromy in Salmonid Fishes p. 86

7.2 The DSVM Model p. 87

7.3 The IBM Using SPT p. 88

7.4 SPT Model Results and Applications p. 91

8 Guidance for Using State- and Prediction-Based Theory p. 93

8.2 Step 1: Defining the Decision That SPT Models p. 94

8.3 Step 2: Selecting Fitness Measures and Time Horizons p. 97

8.4 Step 3: Modeling Prediction of Environmental Conditions and Fitness Elements p. 102

8.4.1 General Guidance on Modeling Prediction p. 103

8.4.2 Predicting Growth and Size p. 108

8.4.3 Predicting Starvation Risk p. 109

8.4.4 Predicting Predation and Other Risks p. 114

8.4.5 Predicting Reproductive Success p. 116

8.5 Step 4: Selecting a Decision Algorithm p. 117

8.6 Step 5: Implementing and Testing the Theory p. 118

9 Testing and Refining State- and Prediction-Based Theory p. 123

9.2 The Pattern-Oriented Theory Development Cycle p. 124

9.3 Examples of Theory Development and Testing p. 127

9.3.1 Literature Examples p. 127

9.3.2 Trout Habitat Selection p. 128

9.3.3 Activity Selection in Trout p. 130

9.3.4 Foraging Habitat Selection in Songbirds p. 130

10 Building Model Credibility p. 133

10.2 Issues in "Validation" of Individual-Based Population Models p. 134

10.3 Strategies for Building Credibility p. 136

10.4 Lessons Learned in Field, Laboratory, and Simulation Experiments p. 137

11 Empirical Research on Populations of Adaptive Individuals p. 141

11.2 Benefits of Models for Field Studies p. 142

11.3 Modeling Phase 1: Formulate the Question p. 144

11.4 Modeling Phase 2: Assemble Hypotheses p. 144

11.5 Modeling Phase 3: Choose Model Structure p. 147

11.6 Modeling Phase 5: Analyze the Model p. 150

12.1 Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals p. 154

12.2 Key Characteristics of the Approach p. 155

12.3 Conclusions from Example Models p. 157.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Other Format:

Online version: Railsback, Steven F., 1957- Modeling populations of adaptive individuals

ISBN:

9780691180496

0691180490

9780691195285

0691195285

OCLC:

1111655227