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Russia, NATO, and Black Sea security / Stephen J. Flanagan, Anika Binnendijk, Irina A. Chindea, Katherine Costello, Geoffrey Kirkwood, Dara Massicot, Clint Reach.
- Format:
- Book
- Author/Creator:
- Flanagan, Stephen J., author.
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
- Relations.
- Politics and government.
- Black Sea Region--Politics and government--21st century.
- Black Sea Region.
- Black Sea Region--Relations--Russia (Federation).
- Black Sea Region--Strategic aspects.
- Russia (Federation).
- Physical Description:
- xvii, 175, pages : color illustrations, color maps ; 26 cm
- Place of Publication:
- Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Corporation, [2020]
- Summary:
- The Black Sea region is a central locus of the competition between Russia and the West for the future of Europe. The region experienced two decades of simmering conflicts even before Moscow's illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Russia has used military force against countries in the region four times since 2008. The Kremlin is seeking to establish a sphere of privileged influence over countries in the region and limit their integration into Euro-Atlantic structures while enhancing Russia's regime stability and improving military capabilities for homeland defense and wider power projection into the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. Despite this instability and conflict, U.S. and European officials and analysts have not given nearly as much attention to the region's security challenges as they have to those in Northern Europe. In this report, the authors first assess how Russia is employing a variety of nonmilitary and military instruments to advance its goals. They then consider how the three North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies (Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey) and five NATO partners (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine) in the Black Sea region perceive and are responding to Russia's activities and where those countries' interests align and diverge. Finally, the authors identify possible elements of a Western strategy to protect mutual interests, counter Russian malign influence and aggression, and foster regional stability.
- Contents:
- Machine generated contents note: ch. One Introduction / Stephen J. Flanagan
- Complex Political and Security Dynamics in the Black Sea Region
- Methodology
- Organization of This Report
- ch. Two The Black Sea Region in Russia's Worldview / Stephen J. Flanagan
- How Russian Leaders View the World
- How Russian Leaders View the West
- How Russian Leaders View Russia Itself
- Trajectories in Russia's Worldview
- Implications for Russia's Strategy in the Black Sea Region
- Framing the Multidimensional Contest in the Black Sea Region
- ch. Three Russian Measures of Influence Short of Force / Dara Massicot
- Media-Based Influences
- Energy Politics and Economic Influences
- Clandestine and Covert Activities
- Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy
- ch. Four The Military Role in Russia's Black Sea Strategy / Clint Reach
- Russia's Interests, Objectives, and Strategy in the Black Sea Region
- Trends in Russian Military Capabilities
- ch. Five Romanian, Bulgarian, and Turkish Views on Russian Strategy and Posture / Katherine Costello
- Romania: Consistent Apprehension About Russia's Intentions
- Bulgaria: Caution in Balancing Concern with Opportunity
- Turkey: Concerns Overridden by Interests, for Now
- ch. Six Western Partners on the Black Sea's Northwestern Shore: Ukraine and Moldova / Irina A. Chindea
- Ukraine: Seeking Stronger Ties to the West, Hindered by Aggressive Russian Interference
- Moldova: Western Partnership Limited by Internal Divisions and Russian Pressure
- Potential U.S. and NATO Actions in Ukraine and Moldova to Support a Countervailing Western Strategy
- ch. Seven The South Caucasus and Black Sea Security / Geoffrey Kirkwood
- Georgia: Euro-Atlantic Aspirations
- Azerbaijan: Seeking Integration with the West but Susceptible to Russian Pressures
- Armenia: Russian Ally Interested in Some Western Ties
- ch. Eight Conclusions and Implications for a Countervailing Western Strategy / Stephen J. Flanagan
- Russia's Intentions, Capabilities, and Redlines
- Recommended Elements of a Countervailing Western Strategy.
- Notes:
- Includes bibliographical references (pages 153-175).
- ISBN:
- 1977405681
- 9781977405685
- OCLC:
- 1224550198
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