North Korean decisionmaking : economic opening, conventional deterrence breakdown, and nuclear use / John V. Parachini, Scott W. Harold, Gian Gentile, Derek Grossman, Leah Heejin Kim, Logan Ma, Michael J. Mazarr, Linda Robinson.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Parachini, John, author.

Harold, Scott, 1975- author.

Gentile, Gian P., author.

Grossman, Derek, author.

Kim, Leah Heejin, author.

Mazarr, Michael J., 1965- author.

Robinson, Linda, 1962- author.

Contributor:

Ma, Logan.

National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)

Rand Corporation.

National Intelligence Council (U.S.)

Series:

Research report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-A165-1.

[Research report] ; RR-A165-1

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Korea (North)--Politics and government--2011-.

Korea (North).

Politics and government.

Political leadership--Korea (North).

Political leadership.

Nuclear weapons--Korea (North).

Nuclear weapons.

Nuclear arms control--Korea (North).

Nuclear arms control.

Economic policy.

Korea (North)--Economic policy.

Physical Description:

xix, 103 pages : color illustrations ; 23 cm.

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corporation, [2020]

Summary:

This report is a compilation of three papers designed to stimulate discussion among those who are focused on North Korean decisionmaking. The first paper describes the experiences of North Korea and three similar authoritarian regimes-China, Vietnam, and Cuba-and provides a forecast of why and how North Korea might adopt a new economic model. The second paper describes decisions that the North Korean leadership might face in two scenarios in which conventional deterrence on the Korean Peninsula breaks down. The final paper provides an assessment of North Korean leadership decisionmaking about nuclear weapons doctrine. Despite the many unknowns surrounding the North Korean leadership decisionmaking process, these papers constructively outline the parameters of the North Korean decisionmaking "trade space" and the historical examples from which North Korean leaders might draw.

Contents:

Machine generated contents note: ch. One Introduction

ch. Two Prospects That North Korea Will Engage in Market Reform

Factors That Influence Economic Reform Decisionmaking

Factors That Influenced China's Economic Reform Decisions

Factors That Influenced Vietnam's Economic Reform Decisions

Factors That Influenced Cuban Economic Reform Decisions

Factors That Influenced North Korea's Past Economic Reforms

Conclusions

ch. Three Conventional Deterrence on the Korean Peninsula: Two Scenarios for Analysis

The Two Scenarios

Scenario 1 Moon Defense Reforms Erode Conventional Deterrence

Scenario 2 Changes in U.S.-ROK Command Structures Erode

ch. Four North Korea Nuclear Doctrine

Nuclear Doctrine: The Range of Possibilities

Inferring Intentions: DPRK Official Statements

Potential DPRK Nuclear Doctrines

Possible Nuclear Use Scenarios

ch. Five Conclusions.

Notes:

"RAND National Defense Research Institute."

"Prepared for the National Intelligence Council."

Includes bibliographical references (pages 93-103).

ISBN:

1977405533

9781977405531

OCLC:

1198250126