Could the Houthis be the next Hizballah? : Iranian proxy development in Yemen and the future of the Houthi movement / Trevor Johnston, Matthew Lane, Abigail Casey, Heather J. Williams, Ashley L. Rhoades, James Sladden, Nathan Vest, Jordan R. Reimer, Ryan Haberman.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Johnston, Trevor (Political scientist)

Contributor:

Lane, Matthew (Political scientist)

Casey, Abigail.

Williams, Heather.

Rhoades, Ashley L.

Sladden, James.

Vest, Nathan.

Reimer, Jordan R.

Haberman, Ryan.

National Defense Research Institute (U.S.)

Rand Corporation.

United States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Ancār Allāh.

Iran--Foreign relations--Yemen (Republic).

Iran.

International relations.

Yemen (Republic).

Yemen (Republic)--Foreign relations--Iran.

Yemen (Republic)--Politics and government--21st century.

Politics and government.

Physical Description:

xvii, 128 pages : illustrations, maps ; 26 cm

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND, [2020]

Summary:

In recent years Iran has dramatically increased its investment in the Houthi movement, raising speculation that the Houthis will evolve into another regional proxy that serves to protect and promote Iranian interests. Iran has frequently turned to sponsor-proxy relationships to expand its reach in the Middle East and antagonize its adversaries while minimizing the risk of inviting direct conflict. The Houthis represent an attractive opportunity on both of these counts-giving Iran reach into Yemen and the adjacent Red Sea and providing Iran a means to harass its rival, Saudi Arabia. The authors document the results of a project analyzing the prospect that Iran will further invest in the Houthis and develop them into an enduring proxy group in Yemen. The authors focus on the history of the Houthi movement, its current relations with Iran, and possibilities for the future. To inform this analysis and better capture Iran's strategic calculus vis-à-vis the Houthis, the project also explores Iran's history of proxy development in three distinct contexts: Lebanon, Iraq, and the Persian Gulf. Lessons from these cases have informed the analysis of the trajectory of the Houthi-Iran relationship, and the authors pose scenarios for the future. The project's findings should be of interest to a wide-ranging audience in the foreign policy and defense community, and particularly those interested in proxy warfare and conflict dynamics in the Middle East. The analysis can help policymakers better understand Iranian motivations throughout the region, while offering clear signals and warnings of potential escalation in Yemen.

Contents:

Machine generated contents note: ch. One Introduction

Iran as a Strategic Actor

The Houthis as a Potential Strategic Actor

Report Outline

ch. Two Sponsor-Proxy Relationships

Defining Terms and Key Concepts

Sponsor-Proxy Relationships in a Principal-Agent Framework

Sponsor-Proxy Relationships as Market Entry and Investment

ch. Three Iran's History Of Proxy Relationships

Investment and Partnership in Lebanon

Portfolio Diversification in Iraq

State Resistance and Proxy Failure in the Persian Gulf

ch. Four The Houthis And Their Relationship With Iran

A Brief Note on Sources

The Emergence of the Houthi Movement and Ties to Iran

Conflict and the Development of the Houthi Movement

The Evolution of Iranian Proxy Investments in Yemen

ch. Five Scenario Analysis And The Future Of The Houthi-Iran Relationship

The Yemeni Civil War: Military Stalemate and Political Intransigence

Near-Term Scenarios of the Yemeni Civil War

Exploring Alternative Future Trajectories of the Houthi-Iran Relationship

Chapter Summary

ch. Six Indicators Of Political And Military Change

Fluid Military Conditions

Political Uncertainty

ch. Seven Conclusion

The Houthis in Comparative Perspective

The Future of the Houthi-Iran Relationship.

Notes:

"RAND National Defense Research Institute."

"Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense."

Includes bibliographical references (pages 115-128).

ISBN:

1977402518

9781977402516

OCLC:

1192323277