Global catastrophic risks / edited by Nick Bostrom, Milan M. Ćirković.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Bostrom, Nick, 1973- editor.

Ćirković, Milan M., editor.

Series:

Oxford scholarship online.

Oxford scholarship online

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Disasters--Forecasting.

Disasters.

Natural disasters.

Risk assessment.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (xxii, 554 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2020.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

A global catastrophic risk is a risk that has the potential to inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. This text focuses on global catastrophic risks arising from natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, biological weapons, advanced nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, and social collapse.

Contents:

""Contents""; ""Acknowledgements""; ""Foreword""; ""1 Introduction""; ""1.1 Why?""; ""1.2 Taxonomy and organization""; ""1.3 Part I: Background""; ""1.4 Part II: Risks from nature""; ""1.5 Part III: Risks from unintended consequences""; ""1.6 Part IV: Risks from hostile acts""; ""1.7 Conclusions and future directions""; ""Part I: Background""; ""2 Long-term astrophysical processes""; ""2.1 Introduction: physical eschatology""; ""2.2 Fate of the Earth""; ""2.3 Isolation of the local group""; ""2.4 Collision with Andromeda""; ""2.5 The end of stellar evolution""

""2.6 The era of degenerate remnants""; ""2.7 The era of black holes""; ""2.8 The Dark Era and beyond""; ""2.9 Life and information processing""; ""2.10 Conclusion""; ""Suggestions for further reading""; ""References""; ""3 Evolution theory and the future of humanity""; ""3.1 Introduction""; ""3.2 The causes of evolutionary change""; ""3.3 Environmental changes and evolutionary changes""; ""3.4 Ongoing human evolution""; ""3.5 Future evolutionary directions""; ""Suggestions for further reading""; ""References""; ""4 Millennial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats""

""4.1 Introduction""; ""4.2 Types of millennialism""; ""4.3 Messianism and millenarianism""; ""4.4 Positive or negative teleologies: utopianism and apocalypticism""; ""4.5 Contemporary techno-millennialism""; ""4.6 Techno-apocalypticism""; ""4.7 Symptoms of dysfunctional millennialism in assessing future scenarios""; ""4.8 Conclusions""; ""Suggestions for further reading""; ""References""; ""5 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks""; ""5.1 Introduction""; ""5.2 Availability""; ""5.3 Hindsight bias""; ""5.4 Black Swans""; ""5.5 The conjunction fallacy""

""5.6 Confirmation bias""; ""5.7 Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination""; ""5.8 The affect heuristic""; ""5.9 Scope neglect""; ""5.10 Calibration and overconfidence""; ""5.11 Bystander apathy""; ""5.12 A final caution""; ""5.13 Conclusion""; ""Suggestions for further reading""; ""References""; ""6 Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks""; ""6.1 Introduction: anthropic reasoning and global risks""; ""6.2 Past-future asymmetry and risk inferences""; ""6.3 Doomsday Argument""; ""6.4 Fermi's paradox""; ""6.5 The Simulation Argument""

""6.6 Making progress in studying observation selection effects""; ""Suggestions for further reading""; ""References""; ""7 Systems-based risk analysis""; ""7.1 Introduction""; ""7.2 Risk to interdependent infrastructure and sectors of the economy""; ""7.3 Hierarchical holographic modelling and the theory of scenario structuring""; ""7.4 Phantom system models for risk management of emergent multi-scale systems""; ""7.5 Risk of extreme and catastrophic events""; ""Suggestions for further reading""; ""References""; ""8 Catastrophes and insurance""; ""8.1 Introduction""; ""8.2 Catastrophes""; ""8.3 What the business world thinks""

Notes:

Previously issued in print: 2008.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

0-19-191810-5

0-19-154713-1

OCLC:

609850396