Modern risk quantification in complex projects : non-linear Monte Carlo and system dynamics methodologies / Yuri G. Raydugin.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Raydugin, Yuri, 1960- author.

Series:

Oxford scholarship online.

Oxford scholarship online

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Risk management--Methodology.

Risk management.

Project management--Methodology.

Project management.

Monte Carlo method.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (375 pages) : illustrations

Edition:

First edition.

Place of Publication:

Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2020.

Summary:

"Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in majority of cases. Apparently, the referred methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects overlooked are the components associated with structural and delivery complexity.Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding.Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable to forecast project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects including notorious projects-outliers: it has a much lower systematic error.The power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects. Results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned.All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website." -- Publisher's description.

Contents:

Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies

Risk Quantification in Simple Projects

Principles of Risk Quantification in Complex Projects

Risk Quantification in Complex Projects.

Notes:

Description based on online resource; title from home page (viewed on September 14, 2020).

This edition also issued in print: 2020.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

0-19-258265-8

0-19-187988-6

0-19-258264-X

0192582658

9780192582652

0191879886

9780191879883

019258264X

9780192582645

0198844336

9780198844334