More Slack than Meets the Eye? Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies / Gee Hee Hong, Zsoka Koczan, Weicheng Lian, Malhar Nabar.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Hong, Gee Hee.

Contributor:

Koczan, Zsoka.

Lian, Weicheng.

Nabar, Malhar.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2018/050

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Physical Description:

1 online resource (45 pages)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2018.

Summary:

Nominal wage growth in most advanced economies remains markedly lower than it was before the Great Recession of 2008–09. This paper finds that the bulk of the wage slowdown is accounted for by labor market slack, inflation expectations, and trend productivity growth. In particular, there appears to be greater slack than meets the eye. Involuntary part-time employment appears to have weakened wage growth even in economies where headline unemployment rates are now at, or below, their averages in the years leading up to the recession.

Contents:

Cover

Contents

Abstract

INTRODUCTION

DATA

STYLIZED FACTS: SURFACE HEALING MASKS DEEPER CHANGES

A. Headline Employment and Wages

B. Involuntary Part-Time Employment, Temporary Contracts, Hours

C. Separating Compositional Shifts from Common Patterns across Sectors

DRIVERS OF RECENT WAGE DYNAMICS

A. The Role of Traditional Measures of Slack

B. The role of latent slack

C. Contributions to Changes in Nominal Wage Growth

D. Common Components

E. Underlying Drivers

F. Sectoral Analysis

SUMMARY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

References

TABLES

1. Country Coverage

2. Data Sources

3. Estimates of Wage Phillips Curves

4. Estimates of Wage Phillips Curves with Alternative Measures

5. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Involuntary Part-Time Employment Share by Country Group

6. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Involuntary Part-Time Employment Share: Full Sample and Countries with Unemployment Rates Lower than 2000-07 Average

7. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Involuntary Part-Time Employment Share: Countries with Unemployment Rates Moderately Higher and Appreciably Higher than 2000-07 Average

8. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Structural Variables

9. Estimation of Wage Phillips Curve Augmented with Structural Variables: Excluding Years 2008 and 2009

10. Drivers of Involuntary Part-Time Employment Share, Aggregate Analysis

11. Aggregate Forces and Sectoral Exposures

12. Drivers of Sectoral Nominal Wage Growth

13. Drivers of Sectoral Part-Time Employment Shares

14. Drivers of Nominal Wage Growth, Employment Growth and Part-Time Employment

FIGURES

1. Distribution of Labor Market Indicators

2. Distribution of Nominal Wage Growth and Correlation with Changes in the Unemployment Rate.

3. Job Attributes: Involuntary Part-Time Employment

4. Job Attributes: Temporary Contracts

5. Job Attributes: Hours per Worker

6. Average Nominal Wage Growth, 2009-16, Actual versus Imputed Using 2008 Sectoral Employment Shares

7. Changes in Labor Market Indicators, Actual versus Imputed Using 2008 Sectoral Employment Shares

8. Job Attributes and Changes in Sectoral Employment Shares, 2008-16

9. Effects on Growth of Compensation per Hour: Panel Estimation

10. Effects on Growth of Compensation per Hour: Country-by-Country Estimation, Cross-Country Dispersion

11. Effects of Involuntary Part-Time Employment on Growth of Compensation per Hour, 2000-16

12. Effects of Involuntary Part-Time Employment on Compensation and Wages, 2000-16

13. Decomposition of Wage Dynamics, 2000-16

14. Decomposition of Wage Dynamics, 2000

15. Year Fixed Effects and Common Drivers, 2000-16

16. Changes in Growth Expectations and Labor Market Institutions

17. Long-Term Drivers of Labor Market Dynamics

18. Effects on Involuntary Part-Time Employment Share, Aggregate Analysis

19. Decomposition of Sectoral Wage Dynamics, 2000-15

20. Effects on Part-Time Employment Share, Sectoral Analysis.

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

ISBN:

9781484346945

1484346947

9781484346976

1484346971

OCLC:

1076255613