The turnout myth : voting rates and partisan outcomes in American national elections / Daron R. Shaw and John R. Petrocik.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Shaw, Daron R., 1966- author.

Petrocik, John R., 1944- author.

Contributor:

Herman V. Ames Fund.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Voting research.

Voter turnout.

United States.

Voter turnout--United States.

Political participation--United States.

Political participation.

Voting research--United States.

Physical Description:

x, 200 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm

Other Title:

Voting rates and partisan outcomes in American national elections

Place of Publication:

New York, NY : Oxford University Press, [2020]

Summary:

This book refutes the widely held convention that high turnout in national elections advantages Democratic candidates while low turnout helps Republicans. It examines over fifty years of presidential, gubernatorial, Senate, and House election data to show there is no consistent partisan effect associated with turnout. The overall relationship between the partisan vote and turnout for these offices is uncorrelated. Most significant, there is no observable party bias to turnout when each office or seat is examined through time. In some states, across the decades, gubernatorial and senatorial contests show a pro-Democratic bias to turnout; in others an increase in turnout helps Republicans. The pattern repeats for House elections during the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and through the 2010s. The analysis demonstrates that, within the range that turnout varies in American elections, it is the participation and abstention of easily influenced, less engaged citizens - peripheral voters - that move the outcome between the parties. These voters are the most influenced when the short-term forces of the election - differential candidate appeal, issues, scandals, and so forth - help the parties. Since these influences advantage Republicans as often as Democrats, the oscillation in turnout that coincides with pro-GOP and pro-Democratic forces leaves turnout rates inconsequential overall. The connections between short-term forces and the election cycle dominate the inconsistent partisan effects of turnout.

Contents:

If only our people had turned out!

American voter turnout : a history and portrait

A theoretical exploration of turnout and voting

Turnout and partisan vote choice : over time and across states and districts

Turnout and partisan vote choice : over time and within states and districts

Congressional district results : a further look

Why is the conventional wisdom wrong?

If turnout isn't driving election swings, what is?

Some final data and thoughts on the link between turnout and vote choice.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (179-184) and index.

Local Notes:

Acquired for the Penn Libraries with assistance from the Herman V. Ames Fund.

ISBN:

0190089466

9780190089467

9780190089450

0190089458

OCLC:

1113899729

Publisher Number:

99984146726