Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting / edited by Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Bengtsson, Tommy, Editor.

Contributor:

Bengtsson, Tommy, Editor.

Keilman, Nico, Editor.

Series:

Demographic Research Monographs, A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, 1613-5520

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Demography.

Population.

Statistics.

Population Economics.

Statistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law.

Local Subjects:

Demography.

Population Economics.

Statistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (XI, 349 p. 110 illus., 29 illus. in color.)

Edition:

1st ed. 2019.

Place of Publication:

Cham : Springer International Publishing : Imprint: Springer, 2019.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.".

Contents:

Ch 1.Introduction: Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, Juha Alho, Kaare Christensen, Edward Palmer, James W. Vaupel: SECTION 1. Current practice: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Nico Keilman

Ch 2. Life Expectancy is Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes – A New Challenge for the Art of Projecting Mortality: Edward Palmer

Ch 3. Experiences from Forecasting Mortality in Finland: Juha Alho

Ch 4. Mortality Projections in Norway: Helge Brunborg

Ch 5. Mortality Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000–2050 Population Projection: Hans Lundström

Ch 6. Forecasting Life Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach: James W. Vaupel

Ch 7. Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing Models – an Epidemiologist’s Perspective: Kaare Christensen

Ch 8. The Need for Looking Far Back in Time When Predicting Future Mortality Trends: Tommy Bengtsson

SECTION 2. Probabilistic models: Introduction by Nico Keilman

Ch 9. Erroneous Population Forecasts: Nico Keilman

Ch 10. Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in Demography and Forecasting: Juha M. Alho

Ch 11. An Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality Forecasting in the Netherlands: Maarten Alders and Joop de Beer

Ch 12. Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, Population and Pension Systems: Shripad Tuljapurkar

SECTION 3. The linear rise in life expectancy: History and prospects: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson

Ch 13. The Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days: Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel

Ch 14. Mortality Forecasts and Linear Life Expectancy Trends: Ronald Lee

Ch 15. Forecasting Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and Use of Auxiliary Series: Juha M. Alho

Ch 16. Life Expectancy Convergence among Nations since 1820: Separating the Effects of Technology and Income: Jim Oeppen

Ch 17. Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past and Present: Tommy Bengtsson

SECTION 4. Causes of death: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Kaare Christensen

Ch 18. How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating Mortality Trends. An Update: Graziella Caselli, Jacques Vallin and Marco Marsili

Ch 19. Forecasting Life Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden – Some Comments on Methodological Problems and Potential Approaches: Måns Rosén

Ch 20. How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts: Richard Willets

SECTION 5. Cohort factors: How conditions in early life influence mortality later in life: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson

Ch 21. A Life Course Perspective to the Modern Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in Morbidity and Mortality in Sweden: Martin Lindström and George Davey Smith

Ch 22. Early Life Events and Later Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies: Kaare Christensen

Ch 23. The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan: Gabriele Doblhammer

Ch 24. Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age Mortality in a Comparative Perspective:19th Century Sweden and Belgium: Tommy Bengtsson and George Alter. .

Notes:

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

ISBN:

3-030-05075-0

OCLC:

1091623831