Force planning scenarios, 1945-2016 : their origins and use in defense strategic planning / Eric V. Larson.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Larson, Eric V. (Eric Victor), 1957- author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

United States. Department of Defense.

United States.

Military planning--United States--Evaluation.

Military planning.

Military planning--Evaluation.

Evaluation.

Physical Description:

xxix, 341 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, California : RAND Corporation, [2019]

Summary:

This report describes the forces that shaped conventional ground force planning during the 1945-2016 period, with an emphasis on the strategic concepts and contingency scenarios used. It identifies broader lessons that are likely to be of interest to contemporary force planners, especially those related to the strategic concepts to help connect basic national security policies with the planning and development of conventional ground forces, and provides the context for consideration of different combinations of force planning scenarios. Finally, the report identifies potential opportunities for the U.S. Army to influence the future selection of defense planning scenarios. Historically, U.S. global interests and commitments have been sufficiently expansive that it was impossible to design a fiscally acceptable force that could defend all U.S. interests simultaneously: Efforts to estimate the forces required to simultaneously defend all U.S. interests have typically led to force structure estimates twice as large as more-realistic, budget-informed planning approaches. The report demonstrates that Cold War-era strategic concepts and scenarios for planning conventional forces focused on the capabilities, intentions, posture, and plans of the USSR and China. In the post-Cold War era, Northeast and Southwest Asian and terrorist threat scenarios have predominated. The analysis shows that the scenarios that have been used in defense planning have been derived from each administration's prior conclusions about the relative importance of national security interests, and threats and challenges to these interests; national security policies and strategies; and the strategic concepts that have provided a framework for relating military forces to strategic ends.

Contents:

Introduction

The Truman Administration, 1945-1953

The Eisenhower Administration, 1953-1961

The Kennedy and Johnson Administrations, 1961-1969

The Nixon and Ford Administrations, 1969-1977

The Carter Administration, 1977-1981

The Reagan Administration, 1981-1989

The George H. W. Bush Administration, 1989-1993

The Clinton Administration, 1993-2001

The George W. Bush Administration, 2001-2009

The Obama Administration, 2009-2017

Observations and Conclusions

Appendix A: Strategic Analysis Key Terms, Authorities, and Directives

Appendix B: The Development and Use of Scenarios in the Joint Strategic Planning System

Appendix C: Supplementary Tables and Figures.

ISBN:

197740099X

9781977400994

OCLC:

1112885303