Probabilistic physics of failure approach to reliability : modeling, accelerated testing, prognosis and reliability assessment / Mohammad Modarres, Mehdi Amiri, Christopher Jackson.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Modarres, M. (Mohammad), author.

Amiri, Mehdi, author.

Jackson, Christopher, 1979- author.

Series:

Performability engineering series.

Performability engineering series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Failure analysis (Engineering).

Reliability (Engineering).

Physical Description:

1 online resource (288 pages) : illustrations.

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, 2017.

Summary:

The book presents highly technical approaches to the probabilistic physics of failure analysis and applications to accelerated life and degradation testing to reliability prediction and assessment. Beside reviewing a select set of important failure mechanisms, the book covers basic and advanced methods of performing accelerated life test and accelerated degradation tests and analyzing the test data. The book includes a large number of very useful examples to help readers understand complicated methods described. Finally, MATLAB, R and OpenBUGS computer scripts are provided and discussed to support complex computational probabilistic analyses introduced.

Contents:

Cover

Title Page

Copyright Page

Contents

Preface

1 Overview of Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure Approach to Reliability

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Overview of Physics-of-Failure Modeling

1.3 Important Forms of PoF Models

1.4 PPoF Approach to Life Assessment

1.5 Accelerated Testing in PPoF Model Development

1.6 Organization of the Book

References

2 Summary of Mechanisms of Failure and Associated PoF Models

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Fatigue

2.2.1 Life-Stress

2.2.1.1 The S-N Diagram

2.2.1.2 Mean Stress Effects

2.2.1.3 Combined Loading

2.2.2 Strain-Life

2.2.2.1 Monotonie Stress-Strain Behavior

2.2.2.2 Cyclic Stress-Strain Behavior

2.2.2.3 Strain-Life Relationship

2.2.2.4 Mean Stress Effects

2.2.3 Variable Amplitude Loading

2.2.3.1 Non-Linear Damage Models

2.2.4 Notch Effect

2.2.4.1 Life-Stress

2.2.4.2 Strain-Life

2.2.5 Two-Stage Approach to Fatigue Life Estimation

2.2.6 Fracture Mechanics

2.2.6.1 Stress Intensity Factor

2.2.6.2 Region I

2.2.6.3 Region II

2.2.6.4 Region III

2.2.6.5 Fracture Mechanics Approach with Notch Effect

2.2.7 Factors Influencing Fatigue Failure

2.2.7.1 Size Effect

2.2.7.2 Frequency Effect

2.2.7.3 Environmental and External Effects

2.2.7.4 Miscellaneous Factors

2.3 Wear

2.3.1 General Form of Wear Equations

2.3.2 Sliding Wear

2.3.3 Abrasive Wear

2.3.4 Impact Wear

2.3.5 Rolling Wear

2.3.6 Life Models for Bearings

2.3.7 Life Models for Seals

2.3.8 Wear of Lubricated Contacts

2.3.9 Lubricated Wear and Lubricant Life

2.4 Creep

2.4.1 Larson-Miller Theory

2.4.2 Manson-Haferd Theory

2.4.3 Creep Under Uniaxial State of Stress

2.4.4 Cumulative Creep Prediction

2.5 Corrosion

2.5.1 Models for Prediction of Corrosion Rate and Service Life

References.

3 Types of Accelerated Testing and Modeling Concepts

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Types of Accelerated Testing - Qualitative and Quantitative

3.3 Qualitative Accelerated Tests

3.3.1 Environmental Stress Testing

3.3.2 Burn-In Testing

3.3.3 Environmental Stress Screening

3.3.4 Highly Accelerated Life Testing

3.3.4.1 Summary of HALT Process

3.3.5 Highly Accelerated Stress Screening

3.4 Quantitative Accelerated Tests

3.4.1 Modeling Degradation Associated with Various Failure Mechanisms

3.4.1.1 Stress-Strength Model

3.4.1.2 Damage-Endurance Model

3.4.1.3 Performance-Requirement Model

3.4.2 Forms of Degradation and Performance Models

4 Analysis of Accelerated Life Testing Data and Physics-Based Reliability Model Development

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Accelerated Life Data Analysis Methods

4.3 Basics of ALT Data Analysis

4.4 Types of Collected Accelerated Life Test Data

4.5 Life-stress Models

4.6 Probability Plotting Method for ALT Model Estimation

4.6.1 Life-Stress Model by Regression

4.6.2 Summary of Plotting Method for Analyzing ALT Data

4.7 Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach to ALT Data Analysis

4.8 Confidence Intervals for MLE

4.9 MLE Approach to Estimating Parameters of Common Distributions

4.9.1 Exponential Life Distribution

4.9.2 Weibull Life Distribution

4.9.3 Lognormal Life Distribution

4.10 MLE-Based Parameter Estimation for Different Life-Stress Models

4.10.1 The Exponential Life-Stress Model

4.10.2 Exponential Life-Stress Model with Weibull Life Distribution

4.10.3 Exponential Life-Stress Model with Lognormal Life Distribution

4.10.4 The Eyring Life-Stress Model

4.10.5 The Eyring-Weibull Model

4.10.6 The Eyring-Lognormal Model

4.10.7 Power Life-Stress Model

4.10.8 Power Life-Stress with Weibull Life Model.

4.10.9 Power Life-Stress with Lognormal Model

4.10.10 Dual-Stress Exponential Life-Stress Model

4.10.11 Dual-Stress Exponential Life-Stress Model with Weibull Life Distribution

4.10.12 Dual-Stress Exponential Life-Stress Model with Lognormal Life Distribution

4.10.13 Power-Exponential Life-Stress Model

4.10.14 Power-Exponential Life-Stress Model Weibull Life Distribution

4.10.15 Power-Exponential Life-Stress Model Lognormal Life Distribution

4.11 Proportional Hazards (PH) Model

4.11.1 The Parametric PH Model, with an Example

4.12 Bayesian Estimation Approach to ALT Model Parameter Estimation

4.12.1 Prior Information for Bayesian Estimation

4.12.2 A Bayesian Estimation ALT Data Analysis Example

4.13 Determining Stress Dependencies

4.13.1 Confidence Bounds

4.14 Summary of the ALT Steps and Common Problems in Practice

4.15 Time Varying Stress Tests

4.16 Step-Stress Analysis and Model Development

4.16.1 Plotting Method for Step-Stress Data Analysis

4.16.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method for Step-Stress Data Analysis

4.16.3 Bayesian Inference Method for Step-Stress Data Analysis

5 Analysis of Accelerated Degradation Data and Reliability Model Development

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Degradation Models

5.2.1 Simple Degradation Model Without Variation

5.2.2 Consideration of the Variation in Degradation Model and Failure Time

5.2.3 General Degradation Path Model

5.2.4 Approximate Accelerated Life Degradation Analysis

5.2.5 Maximum Likelihood Approach to Estimating Acceleration Degradation Model Parameters

5.2.6 Bayesian Estimation of ADT Model Parameters

6 Accelerated Test Planning

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Issues to Consider Prior to Accelerated Testing

6.3 Planning for Accelerated Life Tests

6.3.1 Steps for Accelerated Life Tests.

6.3.2 Optimal Design of Accelerated Life Test

6.4 Planning for Accelerated Degradation Tests

7 Accounting for Uncertainties and Model Validation

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Uncertainties in Evidence

7.2.1 Classical Error: Uncertainty in the Physical Process

7.2.2 Berkson Error: Uncertainty in the Observation Process

7.2.2.1 Systematic Uncertainties

7.2.2.2 Stochastic Uncertainties

7.2.2.3 Relationship between Berkson and Classical Errors

7.3 PPoF Model Uncertainties, Errors, and Validation

7.4 Applications of Model Validation in ADT

Index

EULA.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781119388685

1119388686

9781119388647

1119388643

9781119388692

1119388694

OCLC:

989520242