Foresight in action : developing policy-oriented scenarios / Marjolein B.A. van Asselt. [et al.].

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Asselt, M. B. A. van.

Series:

Earthscan risk in society series.

Earthscan risk in society series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Political planning.

Research--Methodology.

Research.

Risk management.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (193 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

London ; Washington, D.C. : Earthscan, 2010.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, pro

Contents:

Foresight in Action Developig Policy-Oriented Scenarios; Copyright; Contents; List of Figures, Tables and Boxes; Acknowledgements; List of Acronyms and Abbreviations; 1 Researching Policy-Oriented Foresight in Action; Aims; Introduction to foresight; Dutch foresight; Research questions; Research approach; Audience; Structure of the book; 2 First Impressions of Foresight Practice; Forecasting and foresight; Preparing the journey; Conclusions; 3 Dealing with Policy; Introduction; Policy-free scenarios; Policy-free and policy-oriented foresight; The no (significant) policy change principle

Struggling with policyPolicy at the framing level; Conclusions; 4 Practising the Scenario Matrix; Attending to the scenario matrix; Textbook descriptions: The backbone functional meaning; Getting started: Backbone and foundation; Analysing multiple representations; Multiplicity continues to reign: The scaffold functional meaning; More functional meanings: The showcase; Conclusions; 5 Dealing with Prospective Uncertainty; Prospective uncertainty; Uncertainty awareness; Uncertainty manners; The danger of 'certainification'; Conclusions; 6 The Past, the Present and the Future; Introduction

MeantimeTemporal repertoires; A case in time; Discontinuity in foresight; Conclusions; 7 Reflection on Action; Summary of findings; Discussion; From reflection on action to reflection in action; Lessons for policy audiences; References; Appendix; Index

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

1-280-87381-7

9786613715128

1-136-53698-1

1-136-53697-3

1-84977-574-5

9781849775748

OCLC:

689997472