Large risks with low probabilities : perceptions and willingness to take preventive measures against flooding / edited by Tadeusz Tyszka and Piotr Zielonka.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Tyszka, Tadeusz., Editor.

Contributor:

Zielonka, Piotr, editor.

Tyszka, Tadeusz, editor.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Disasters--Risk assessment.

Disasters.

Disasters--Decision making.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (230 pages) : illustrations

Place of Publication:

IWA Publishing 2017

London, England : IWA Publishing, 2017.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This volume contains studies of one particular category of risky situations, namely, those involving highly negative consequences with low probabilities. Situations of this type involve both natural and man-made disasters (e.g. floods, technological hazards, economic crises, epidemics, etc.). Such risks are characterized by two features: (1) they occur relatively rarely (the probability of their occurrence is very low) and (2) they have extremely negative consequences (they are catastrophic). Such events generally cannot be prevented, but one can both try to anticipate them and undertake actions aimed at ameliorating their negative consequences. Consequently, the first part of the book is devoted to risk perception issues. It includes studies devoted to the following questions which arise when people have to deal with probabilities, and small probabilities in particular: How can probabilistic information be communicated effectively? What is the impact of emotions on perceptions of, and reactions to, probabilistic information? Other relevant issues are also discussed. The second part of the book is devoted to protection and insurance against risk. Thus, it includes studies answering the following questions: What determines a person's willingness to take preventive actions in areas susceptible to severe flooding? How do people form their own risk estimates? Research presented in the book extends our knowledge of human behavior in situations characterized by large risks and low probabilities, leading to better comprehension of the functioning of cognitive and affective processes in perception and decision making in situations where uncertainty and risk are accompanied by highly negative consequences.

Contents:

Cover

Copyright

Contents

Preface

About the Editors

Chapter 1: Psychological reactions to environmental hazards

1.1 Why Study Psychological Reactions to Environmental Hazards?

1.2 Environmental Cues, Social Cues, Warnings, and Predecisional Information Search

1.3 Perception of Environmental Threats

1.3.1 The difference between expert and lay conceptions of risk

1.3.2 Risk and emotion

1.3.3 Problems with the perception of probabilities

1.4 Decision-Making

1.4.1 Determinants of protective actions and insurance decisions

References

Chapter 2: Are people interested in probabilities of natural disasters?

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Method

2.2.1 Subjects

2.2.2 Decision scenarios

2.2.3 Experimental procedure

2.3 Results

2.3.1 Data classification

2.3.2 Hypothesis testing

2.4 Discussion

Acknowledgements

Appendices

Appendix A: Experimental scenarios

Appendix B: Virus infection scenario (warm-up task) from Bär and Huber (2008)

Appendix C: Choice list for the Holt and Laury (2002) task

Appendix D: Question for general risk taking assessment

Appendix E: Significance of Mann-Whitney U statistics (all tests are one-sided)

Appendix F: Statistics by gender (means are weighted by the corresponding group sizes)

Chapter 3: Overweighting versus underweighting of small probabilities

3.1 Underweighting and Overweighting of Small Probabilities

3.2 When do People Tend to Overweight Small Probabilities?

3.3 When do People Underweight Small Probabilities?

3.4 'Decisions from Description' versus 'Decisions from Experience'

3.5 Explanations of the Description-Experience Gap

3.5.1 Sampling bias

3.5.2 Switching behavior

3.5.3 The recency effect

3.5.4 The mere-presentation effect.

3.6 The Probability Weighting Function: How to Communicate Probabilities

3.7 Conclusions

Chapter 4: The communication of probabilistic information

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Probability Formats

4.2.1 Numerical probability formats

4.2.2 Graphical probability formats

4.2.3 Verbal probability information

4.3 Displaying Probability Information in a Sequential Format: An Empirical Verification

4.4 Experiments 1 and 2: Comparing a Sequential Display Format with Other Probability Formats

4.4.1 The research goal

4.4.2 Method

4.4.3 Experiment 1 - results

4.4.4 Experiment 2 - results

4.5 Conclusions

Chapter 5: The role of emotions in forming judgements about risks

5.1 Introduction

5.1.1 Risk perception

5.1.2 Hazards and emotions

5.1.3 The study's aim

5.2 Method

5.2.1 Participants

5.2.2 Materials and procedure

5.3 Results

5.3.1 The structure of emotional reactions and risk judgements

5.3.2 Mediation analyses

5.4 Conclusions

Appendix B: Compensation

Appendix C: Pearson correlation coefficients for relationships between different emotions

Appendix D: Pearson correlation coefficients for relationships between negative affect and specific emotion factors

Appendix E: Summary of mediation analyses results

Chapter 6: What determines willingness to take preventive actions in areas experiencing severe flooding?

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Method

6.3 Results

6.3.1 How did inhabitants of the areas exposed to flood hazards perceive the threat?

6.3.2 Determinants of willingness to take preventive actions against flood hazard

6.4 Conclusions

Chapter 7: Cognitive and emotional factors influencing the propensity to insure oneself against disaster

7.1 Introduction.

7.1.1 Cognitive factors influencing the propensity to insure oneself against disaster

7.1.2 Emotional factors influencing the propensity to insure oneself against disaster

7.1.3 The role of personal experience in the propensity to insure oneself against disaster

7.1.4 Overview of the present study and hypotheses

7.2 Experiment 1

7.2.1 Method

7.2.2 Results

7.2.3 Discussion

7.3 Experiment 2

7.3.1 Method

7.3.2 Results

7.3.3 Discussion

7.4 Experiment 3

7.4.1 Method

7.4.2 Results

7.4.3 Discussion

7.5 Conclusions

Appendix

Chapter 8: Peer effects in catastrophic risk insurance take-up

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Peer Effects: Mechanisms

8.3 Peer Effects: Empirical Studies

8.4 Experimental Study: Design and Methodology

8.4.1 General set-up

8.4.2 Treatments

8.4.3 Lab details

8.4.4 Predictions

8.5 Experimental Study: Results

8.6 Conclusions

Chapter 9: The illusion of safety: its existence, forms and remedies

9.1 Introduction

9.2 Study 1: The Illusion of Safety in the Laboratory

9.2.1 Participants

9.2.2 Procedure, scenarios and questions

9.2.3 Results

9.3 Study 2: The Illusion of Safety in the Field

9.3.1 The participant sample

9.3.2 Method and questionnaire

9.3.3 Results

9.4 Conclusions

Chapter 10: Education and information as a basis for flood risk management - practical issues

10.1 Why Flood Education?

10.2 Actors in the Flood Risk Education and Communication Process

10.2.1 Broadcasters

10.2.2 Communication intermediaries

10.2.3 Receivers

10.3 Objectives of Flood-Related Education

10.4 Content of Flood-Related Education

10.4.1 Main characteristics of flood hazard

10.4.2 Knowledge of local causes of floods.

10.4.3 Flood risk reduction measures

10.5 Problems of Particular Importance

10.5.1 Responsibility for safety

10.5.2 Illusion of safety

10.5.3 Communication of risk

10.6 Facilitating Access to Important Information on Flood Risk

10.6.1 Improving the transfer of basic information

10.6.2 Providing people with guidebooks, brochures, and manuals addressed to vulnerable constituencies

10.6.3 Supporting social action and grassroots initiatives

10.7 Instruments Strengthening the Flood-Related Education System

10.8 Conclusions

Author Index

Subject Index.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters and index.

CC BY-NC-ND

Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (ebrary, viewed October 13, 2017).

ISBN:

9781780408606

1780408609

OCLC:

1000395256

Access Restriction:

Open Access Unrestricted online access