Reasoning about uncertainty / Joseph Y. Halpern.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Halpern, Joseph Y., 1953- author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Uncertainty (Information theory)--Textbooks.

Uncertainty (Information theory).

Probabilities--Textbooks.

Probabilities.

Reasoning--Textbooks.

Reasoning.

Logic, Symbolic and mathematical--Textbooks.

Logic, Symbolic and mathematical.

Genre:

Textbooks.

Physical Description:

xv, 488 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm

Edition:

Second edition.

Place of Publication:

Cambridge, Massachusetts : The MIT Press, [2017]

Summary:

In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it. In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it. While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty. Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research. New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; and the application of first-order conditional logic to security. Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics. Book jacket.

Contents:

Introduction and overview

Representing uncertainty

Updating beliefs

Independence and Bayesian networks

Expectation

Multi-agent systems

Logics for reasoning about uncertainity

Beliefs, defaults, and counterfactuals

Belief revision

First-order modal logic

From statistics to belief.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and indexes.

ISBN:

9780262533805

0262533804

OCLC:

959036765

Publisher Number:

99978981920