Expert political judgment : how good is it? How can we know? : with a new preface by the author / Philip E. Tetlock.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Tetlock, Philip E. (Philip Eyrikson), 1954- author.

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Political psychology.

Ideology.

Physical Description:

xliv, 321 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm

Edition:

New edition.

Place of Publication:

Princeton : Princeton University Press, 2017.

Summary:

Winner of the 2006 Woodrow Wilson Foundation Award, Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends; analyzes which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting; and notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgment and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits-the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book appeals across many academic disciplines. Book jacket.

Contents:

Quantifying the unquantifiable

The ego-deflating challenge of radical skepticism

Knowing the limits of one's knowledge: foxes have better calibration and discrimination scores than hedgehogs

Honoring reputational bets: foxes are better Bayesians than hedgehogs

Contemplating counterfactuals: foxes are more willing than hedgehogs to entertain self-subversive scenarios

The hedgehogs strike back

Are we open-minded enough to acknowledge the limits of open-mindedness?

Exploring the limits on objectivity and accountability.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN:

0691178283

9780691178288

0691175977

9780691175973

OCLC:

973750331

Publisher Number:

99978864558