U.S. presence and the incidence of conflict / Angela O'Mahony, Miranda Priebe, Bryan Frederick, Jennifer Kavanagh, Matthew Lane, Trevor Johnston, Thomas S. Szayna, Jakub P. Hlavka, Stephen Watts, Matthew Povlock.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

O'Mahony, Angela, author.

Priebe, Miranda, author.

Frederick, Bryan A., author.

Kavanagh, Jennifer, 1981- author.

Lane, Matthew, author.

Johnston, Trevor, author.

Szayna, Thomas S., 1960- author.

Hlavka, Jakub P., author.

Watts, Stephen (Stephen Baldwin), author.

Povlock, Matthew, author.

Contributor:

Rand Corporation, publisher.

Arroyo Center. Army Research Division, issuing body.

Arroyo Center. Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program, researcher.

Series:

Research report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-1906-A.

Research report ; RR-1906-A

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Military assistance, American--Foreign countries.

Military assistance, American.

Foreign countries.

United States--Armed Forces--Foreign countries.

United States.

Armed Forces.

War--Causes.

War.

War--Forecasting.

Physical Description:

xvii, 134 pages : illustrations ; 26 cm.

Other Title:

US presence and the incidence of conflict.

United States presence and the incidence of conflict.

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND, [2018]

Summary:

"There is an ongoing debate about the effects of U.S. military presence on conflict around the globe. In one view, U.S. military presence helps to deter adversaries, restrain U.S. partners from adopting provocative policies, and make it easier for the United States to achieve its aims without the use of force. In another view, U.S. military presence tends to provoke adversaries and encourage allies to adopt more reckless policies, and it increases the likelihood that the United States will be involved in combat. The authors of this report analyze historical data to assess how U.S. military presence -- in particular, U.S. troop presence and military assistance -- is associated with the interstate and intrastate conflict behavior of states and nonstate actors. Troop presence and military assistance have different effects. Stationing U.S. troops abroad may help deter interstate war. A large U.S. regional troop presence may reduce the likelihood of interstate conflict in two ways: by deterring potential U.S. adversaries from initiating interstate wars or by restraining U.S. allies from initiating militarized behavior. However, U.S. military presence may increase interstate militarized activities short of war. U.S. adversaries may be more likely to initiate militarized disputes against states with a larger U.S. in-country troop presence. U.S. troop presence does not appear to reduce the risk of intrastate conflict or affect the level of state repression. U.S. military assistance is not associated with changes in interstate conflict behavior. However, provision of U.S. military assistance may be associated with increased state repression and incidence of civil war. These findings have implications for near-term decisionmaking on U.S. forward troop presence in Europe and Asia."--Publisher's description.

Contents:

Introduction

Trends in U.S. presence

How U.S. troop presence may influence interstate conflict behavior

Empirical assessment of U.S. troop presence and interstate conflict behavior

How U.S. presence may influence intrastate conflict behavior

Empirical assessment of U.S. presence and intrastate conflict behavior

Findings and implications for future U.S. presence and operating environment

Appendixes: A. Interstate model results

B. Intrastate model results.

Notes:

"Prepared for the United States Army"--Title page.

"This research was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-2, United States Army..."--RAND website.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 123-134).

ISBN:

0833097970

9780833097972

OCLC:

1021804128