The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions : Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts / Jennifer Kavanagh [and 8 others].

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Kavanagh, Jennifer, 1981- author.

Contributor:

Arroyo Center, publisher, issuing body.

Rand Corporation, issuing body.

Series:

Research report (Rand Corporation)

Research report ; no. 1831

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

United States. Army--Operational readiness.

United States.

United States. Army.

Military planning--United States.

Military planning.

Low-intensity conflicts (Military science).

National security--United States.

National security.

Unified operations (Military science).

Intervention (International law).

United States--Military policy.

Military policy.

Armed Forces--Operational readiness.

Physical Description:

xxxv, 338 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm.

Other Title:

Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts

Place of Publication:

Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Corporation, [2017]

Summary:

"In recent years, the frequency of U.S. military interventions in overseas areas, including not only those involving conventional war but also peacekeeping and humanitarian relief operations, has risen. These interventions have involved thousands of troops, cost billions of dollars, and placed significant demands on Army leadership, planning, and resources. The Army would benefit from an enhanced ability to anticipate the types and conditions of overseas military interventions it is most likely to be called upon to undertake in the future. This report constructs three different sets of models using historical data (one for each of three intervention types: interventions into armed conflict, stability operations in conflict and postconflict environments, and deterrent interventions). It examines the key factors influencing the incidence of military interventions and intervention size. Finally, the analysis provides the Army with signposts and metrics that can be used to identify countries, conflicts, and crises that are at highest risk for a U.S. intervention. Key signposts include the relationship between the target of the intervention and the United States, past U.S. military involvement in that country, and the severity of the crisis or threat to which the United States is responding. These signposts would allow the Army to better anticipate and plan for future interventions and could improve both near- and medium-term force-planning decisions"--Publisher's description.

Contents:

Preface

Figures

Tables

Summary

Acknowledgments

Abbreviations

1. Introduction: Study Approach

Organization of This Report

2. Historical Analysis of U.S. Army Interventions: RUGID: Variables in the Intervention Data

Variables in the Unit Type Data

Historical Trends in U.S. Ground Interventions: Trends in Activity Types

Trends in Location

Trends in Duration and Size

Analysis of Unit Types in U.S. Ground Interventions: Trends in Unit Type Use

Relationship Between Unit Type and Activity

Relationship Between Unit Type and Intervention Size

Unit Type Mismatches and Shortages

Summary: Which Units Are Most Stressed?

Has the United States Intervened in the Past?: Interventions into Armed Conflict

Stability Operations

Deterrent Interventions

Implications

Summary and Implications

3. Determinants of the Likelihood and Size of Interventions: Existing Literature and Its Shortcomings: Characteristics of the International Environment

Characteristics of the Conflict or Crisis

Domestic Characteristics of the United States

Characteristics of the Target State

Characteristics of the Relationship Between the Target State and the United States: U.S. Interests

Limitations of Existing Research

Identifying Determinants of the Likelihood and Size of Ground Interventions: Methodology: An Overview

Interventions into Armed Conflicts

Interventions to Conduct Stability Operations

Interventions to Increase Deterrence

4. Clustering: What Is Intervention Clustering?

A Look at the Data

Why Would Interventions Cluster? A Review of Existing Literature

Mechanisms of Intervention Clustering

Approach

Results

5. Why Use Case Studies? Purpose and Methodology: Case Study Insights and Takeaways: Lead Time, Duration, and Withdrawal

Resource Demands and Constraints

Leading Indicators and Warning Signs of Future Interventions

Ties to Statistical Analysis

6. Signposts of Future Interventions: Defining a Signpost

Signposts for Interventions into Armed Conflict: Relationship with the United States

Destructiveness of the War

Previous Intervention

War Weariness

U.S. Capabilities

Attack on U.S. Soil

Public and Elite Opinion

Signposts of Stability Operations Interventions: Location of the Target

Number of Refugees

Involvement in the Combat Phase

Military Assistance

Wealth of Target Nation

Multinational Coalition

Signposts of Deterrent Interventions: Degree of Threat

Relationship with the United States

Rate of U.S. Economic Growth

Signposts for Clustering: Recent Interventions in Target Country

Recent Interventions in Proximate Countries

7. Implications for Army Planners: Signposts of Future Interventions

Signposts and Potential Future Interventions

Other Key Insights for Army Planners

Directions for Future Work

APPENDIXES: A. RUGID Codebook and Methodology

B. Case Studies

C. Trends in Unit Type Use

D. Statistical Appendix

References.

Notes:

"Prepared for the United States Army."--Title page.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 315-338).

ISBN:

0833097768

9780833097767

OCLC:

1006470972