Trade-off analytics : creating and exploring the system tradespace / edited by Gregory S. Parnell.

Format:

Book

Contributor:

Parnell, Gregory S., editor.

Series:

Wiley series in systems engineering and management.

Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Systems engineering--Decision making.

Systems engineering.

Multiple criteria decision making.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (635 pages) : illustrations, tables.

Edition:

1st edition

Place of Publication:

Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley, c2017.

Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, 2017.

System Details:

text file

Summary:

Presents information to create a trade-off analysis framework for use in government and commercial acquisition environments This book presents a decision management process based on decision theory and cost analysis best practices aligned with the ISO/IEC 15288, the Systems Engineering Handbook, and the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge. It provides a sound trade-off analysis framework to generate the tradespace and evaluate value and risk to support system decision-making throughout the life cycle. Trade-off analysis and risk analysis techniques are examined. The authors present an integrated value trade-off and risk analysis framework based on decision theory. These trade-off analysis concepts are illustrated in the different life cycle stages using multiple examples from defense and commercial domains. Provides techniques to identify and structure stakeholder objectives and creative, doable alternatives Presents the advantages and disadvantages of tradespace creation and exploration techniques for trade-off analysis of concepts, architectures, design, operations, and retirement Covers the sources of uncertainty in the system life cycle and examines how to identify, assess, and model uncertainty using probability Illustrates how to perform a trade-off analysis using the INCOSE Decision Management Process using both deterministic and probabilistic techniques Trade-off Analytics: Creating and Exploring the System Tradespace is written for upper undergraduate students and graduate students studying systems design, systems engineering, industrial engineering and engineering management. This book also serves as a resource for practicing systems designers, systems engineers, project managers, and engineering managers. Gregory S. Parnell, PhD, is a Research Professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at the University of Arkansas. He is also a senior principal with Innovative Decisions, Inc., a decision and risk analysis firm and has served as Chairman of the Board. Dr. Parnell has published more than 100 papers and book chapters and was lead editor of Decision Making for Systems Engineering and Management, Wiley Series in Systems Engineering (2nd Ed, Wiley 2011) and lead author of the Handbook of Decision Analysis (Wiley 2013). He is a fellow of INFORMS, the INCOSE, MORS, and the Society for Decision Professionals.

Contents:

Cover

Title Page

Copyright

Contents

List of Contributors

About the Authors

Foreword

Preface

Acknowledgments

About the Companion Website

Chapter 1 Introduction to Trade-off Analysis

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Trade-off Analyses Throughout the Life Cycle

1.3 Trade-off Analysis to Identify System Value

1.4 Trade-off Analysis to Identify System Uncertainties and Risks

1.5 Trade-off Analyses can Integrate Value and Risk Analysis

1.6 Trade-off Analysis in the Systems Engineering Decision Management Process

1.7 Trade-off Analysis Mistakes of Omission and Commission

1.7.1 Mistakes of Omission

1.7.2 Mistakes of Commission

1.7.3 Impacts of the Trade-Off Analysis Mistakes

1.8 Overview of the Book

1.8.1 Illustrative Examples and Techniques Used in the Book

1.9 Key Terms

1.10 Exercises

References

Chapter 2 A Conceptual Framework and Mathematical Foundation for Trade-Off Analysis

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Trade-Off Analysis Terms

2.3 Influence Diagram of the Tradespace

2.3.1 Stakeholder Needs, System Functions, and Requirements

2.3.2 Objectives

2.3.3 System Alternatives

2.3.4 Uncertainty

2.3.5 Preferences and Evaluation of Alternatives

2.3.6 Resource Analysis

2.3.7 An Integrated Trade-Off Analyses

2.4 Tradespace Exploration

2.5 Summary

2.6 Key Words

2.7 Exercises

Chapter 3 Quantifying Uncertainty

3.1 Sources of Uncertainty in Systems Engineering

3.2 The Rules of Probability and Human Intuition

3.3 Probability Distributions

3.3.1 Calculating Probabilities from Experiments

3.3.2 Calculating Complex Probabilities from Simpler Probabilities

3.3.3 Calculating Probabilities Using Parametric Distributions

3.3.4 Applications of Parametric Probability Distributions

3.4 Estimating Probabilities.

3.4.1 Using Historical Data

3.4.2 Using Human Judgment

3.4.3 Biases in Judgment

3.5 Modeling Using Probability

3.5.1 Bayes Nets

3.5.2 Monte Carlo Simulation

3.5.3 Monte Carlo Simulation with Dependent Uncertainties

3.5.4 Monte Carlo Simulation with Partial Information on Output Values

3.5.5 Variations on Monte Carlo Simulation

3.5.6 Sensitivity Analysis

3.6 Summary

3.7 Key Terms

3.8 Exercises

Chapter 4 Analyzing Resources

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Resources

4.2.1 People

4.2.2 Facilities

4.2.3 Costs

4.2.4 Resource Space

4.3 Cost Analysis

4.3.1 Cost Estimation

4.3.2 Cost Estimation Techniques

4.3.3 Learning Curves

4.3.4 Net Present Value

4.3.5 Monte Carlo Simulation

4.3.6 Sensitivity Analysis

4.4 Affordability Analysis

4.4.1 Background

4.4.2 The Basics of Affordability Analysis Are Not Difficult

4.4.3 DoD Comparison of Cost Analysis and Affordability Analysis

4.4.4 Affordability Analysis Definitions

4.4.5 "Big A" Affordability Analysis Process Guide

4.5 Key Terms

4.6 Excercises

Chapter 5 Understanding Decision Management

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Decision Process Context

5.3 Decision Process Activities

5.3.1 Frame Decision

5.3.2 Develop Objectives and Measures

5.3.3 Generate Creative Alternatives

5.3.4 Assess Alternatives via Deterministic Analysis

5.3.5 Synthesize Results

5.3.6 Develop Multidimensional Value Model

5.3.7 Identify Uncertainty and Conduct Probabilistic Analysis

5.3.8 Assess Impact of Uncertainty

5.3.9 Improve Alternatives

5.3.10 Communicating Trade-Offs

5.3.11 Present Recommendation and Implementation Plan

5.4 Summary

5.5 Key Terms

5.6 Exercises

Chapter 6 Identifying Opportunities

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Knowledge

6.2.1 Domain Knowledge.

6.2.2 Technical Knowledge

6.2.3 Business Knowledge

6.2.4 Expert Knowledge

6.2.5 Stakeholder Knowledge

6.3 Decision Traps

6.4 Techniques

6.4.1 Interviews

6.4.2 Focus Groups

6.4.3 Surveys

6.5 Tools

6.5.1 Concept Map

6.5.2 System Boundary

6.5.3 Decision Hierarchy

6.5.4 Issues List

6.5.5 Vision Statement

6.5.6 Influence Diagram

6.5.7 Selecting Appropriate Tools and Techniques

6.6 Illustrative Examples

6.6.1 Commercial

6.6.2 Defense

6.7 Key Terms

6.8 Exercises

Chapter 7 Identifying Objectives and Value Measures

7.1 Introduction

7.2 Value-Focused Thinking

7.2.1 Four Major VFT Ideas

7.2.2 Benefits of VFT

7.3 Shareholder and Stakeholder Value

7.3.1 Private Company Example

7.3.2 Government Agency Example

7.4 Challenges in Identifying Objectives

7.5 Identifying the Decision Objectives

7.5.1 Questions to Help Identify Decision Objectives

7.5.2 How to Get Answers to the Questions

7.6 The Financial or Cost Objective

7.6.1 Financial Objectives for Private Companies

7.6.2 Cost Objective for Public Organizations

7.7 Developing Value Measures

7.8 Structuring Multiple Objectives

7.8.1 Value Hierarchies

7.8.2 Techniques for Developing Value Hierarchies

7.8.3 Value Hierarchy Best Practices

7.8.4 Cautions about Cost and Risk Objectives

7.9 Illustrative Examples

7.9.1 Military Illustrative Example

7.9.2 Homeland Security Illustrative Example

7.10 Summary

7.11 Key Terms

7.12 Exercises

Chapter 8 Developing and Evaluating Alternatives

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Overview of Decision-making, Creativity, and Teams

8.2.1 Approaches to Decision-Making

8.2.2 Cognitive Methods for Creating Alternatives

8.2.3 Key Concepts for Building and Operating Teams

8.3 Alternative Development Techniques.

8.3.1 Structured Creativity Methods

8.3.2 Morphological Box

8.3.3 Pugh Method for Alternative Generation

8.3.4 TRIZ for Alternative Development

8.4 Assessment of Alternative Development Techniques

8.5 Alternative Evaluation Techniques

8.5.1 Decision-Theory-Based Approaches

8.5.2 Pugh Method for Alternative Evaluation

8.5.3 Axiomatic Approach to Design (AAD)

8.5.4 TRIZ for Alternative Evaluation

8.5.5 Design of Experiments (DOE)

8.5.6 Taguchi Approach

8.5.7 Quality Function Deployment (QFD)

8.5.8 Analytic Hierarchy Process AHP

8.6 Assessment of Alternative Evaluation Techniques

8.7 Key Terms

8.8 Exercises

Chapter 9 An Integrated Model for Trade-Off Analysis

9.1 Introduction

9.2 Conceptual Design Example

9.3 Integrated Approach Influence Diagram

9.3.1 Decision Nodes

9.3.2 Uncertainty Nodes

9.3.3 Constant Node

9.3.4 Value Nodes

9.4 Other Types of Trade-Off Analysis

9.5 Simulation Tools

9.5.1 Monte Carlo Simulation Proprietary Add-Ins

9.5.2 The Discipline of Probability Management

9.5.3 SIPmathTM Tool in Native Excel

9.5.4 Model Building Steps

9.6 Summary

9.7 Key Terms

9.8 Exercises

Chapter 10 Exploring Concept Trade-Offs

10.1 Introduction

10.1.1 Key Concepts, Concept Trade-Offs, and Concept Exploration

10.2 Defining the Concept Space and System Concept of Operations

10.3 Exploring the Concept Space

10.3.1 Storytelling-Enabled Tradespace Exploration

10.3.2 Decisions and Outcomes

10.3.3 Contingent Decision-Making

10.4 Trade-off Analysis Frameworks

10.5 Tradespace and System Design Life Cycle

10.6 From Point Trade-offs to Tradespace Exploration

10.7 Value-based Multiattribute Tradespace Analysis

10.7.1 Tradespace Exploration and Sensitivity Analysis.

10.7.2 Tradespace Exploration and Uncertainty

10.7.3 Tradespace Exploration with Spiral Development

10.7.4 Tradespace Exploration in Relation to Optimization and Decision Theory

10.8 Illustrative Example

10.8.1 Step 1: Determine Key Decision-Makers

10.8.2 Step 2: Scope and Bound the Mission

10.8.3 Step 3: Elicit Attributes and Utilities (Preference Capture)

10.8.4 Step 4: Define Design Vector Elements (Concept Generation)

10.8.5 Step 5: Develop Model(s) (Evaluation)

10.8.6 Step 6: Generate the Tradespace (Computation)

10.8.7 Step 7: Explore the Tradespace (Analysis and Synthesis)

10.9 Conclusions

10.10 Key Terms

10.11 Exercises

Chapter 11 Architecture Evaluation Framework

11.1 Introduction

11.1.1 Architecture in the Decision Space

11.1.2 Architecture Evaluation

11.1.3 Architecture Views and Viewpoints

11.1.4 Stakeholders

11.1.5 Stakeholder Concerns

11.1.6 Architecture versus Design

11.1.7 On the Uses of Architecture

11.1.8 Standardizing on an Architecture Evaluation Strategy

11.2 Key Considerations in Evaluating Architectures

11.2.1 Plan-Driven Evaluation Effort

11.2.2 Objectives-Driven Evaluation

11.2.3 Assessment versus Analysis

11.3 Architecture Evaluation Elements

11.3.1 Architecture Evaluation Approach

11.3.2 Architecture Evaluation Objectives

11.3.3 Evaluation Approach Examples

11.3.4 Value Assessment Methods

11.3.5 Value Assessment Criteria

11.3.6 Architecture Analysis Methods

11.4 Steps in an Architecture Evaluation Process

11.5 Example Evaluation Taxonomy

11.5.1 Business Impact Factors

11.5.2 Mission Impact Factors

11.5.3 Architecture Attributes

11.6 Summary

11.7 Key Terms

11.8 Exercises

Chapter 12 Exploring the Design Space

12.1 Introduction

12.2 Example 1: Liftboat.

12.2.1 Liftboat Fractional Factorial Design of Experiments.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index

Includes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters and index.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

1-119-23830-7

OCLC:

961455979