A complete guide to the futures market : fundamental analysis, technical analysis, trading, spreads and options spreads and trading principles / Jack D. Schwager, Mark Etzkorn.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Schwager, Jack D., 1948- author.

Etzkorn, Mark, author.

Series:

Wiley trading series.

Wiley Trading Series

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Futures market.

Commodity exchanges.

Hedging (Finance).

Physical Description:

1 online resource.

Edition:

Second edition.

Place of Publication:

Hoboken, New Jersey : Wiley, 2017.

Summary:

The essential futures market reference guide A Complete Guide to the Futures Market is the comprehensive resource for futures traders and analysts. Spanning everything from technical analysis, trading systems, and fundamental analysis to options, spreads, and practical trading principles, A Complete Guide is required reading for any trader or investor who wants to successfully navigate the futures market. Clear, concise, and to the point, this fully revised and updated second edition provides a solid foundation in futures market basics, details key analysis and forecasting techniques, explores advanced trading concepts, and illustrates the practical application of these ideas with hundreds of market examples. A Complete Guide to the Futures Market: * Details different trading and analytical approaches, including chart analysis, technical indicators and trading systems, regression analysis, and fundamental market models. * Separates misleading market myths from reality. * Gives step-by-step instruction for developing and testing original trading ideas and systems. * Illustrates a wide range of option strategies, and explains the trading implications of each. * Details a wealth of practical trading guidelines and market insights from a recognized trading authority. Trading futures without a firm grasp of this market's realities and nuances is a recipe for losing money. A Complete Guide to the Futures Market offers serious traders and investors the tools to keep themselves on the right side of the ledger.

Contents:

Intro

Series

Title Page

Copyright

Dedication

About the Authors

Part I: Preliminaries

Chapter 1: For Beginners Only

Purpose of This Chapter

The Nature of Futures Markets

Delivery

Contract Specifications

Volume and Open Interest

Hedging

Trading

Types of Orders

Commissions and Margins

Tax Considerations

Notes

Chapter 2: The Great Fundamental versus Technical Analysis Debate

Part II: Chart Analysis and Technical Indicators

Chapter 3: Charts: Forecasting Tool or Folklore?

Chapter 4: Types of Charts

Bar Charts

Linked Contract Series: Nearest Futures versus Continuous Futures

Close-Only ("Line") Charts

Point-and-Figure Charts

Candlestick Charts

Chapter 5: Linking Contracts for Long-Term Chart Analysis: Nearest versus Continuous Futures

The Necessity of Linked-Contract Charts

Methods of Creating Linked-Contract Charts

Nearest versus Continuous Futures in Chart Analysis

Conclusion

Chapter 6: Trends

Defining Trends by Highs and Lows

TD Lines

Internal Trend Lines

Moving Averages

Chapter 7: Trading Ranges

Trading Ranges: Trading Considerations

Trading Range Breakouts

Chapter 8: Support and Resistance

Nearest Futures or Continuous Futures?

Trading Ranges

Prior Major Highs and Lows

Concentrations of Relative Highs and Relative Lows

Trend Lines, Channels, and Internal Trend Lines

Price Envelope Bands

Chapter 9: Chart Patterns

One-Day Patterns

Continuation Patterns

Top and Bottom Formations

Chapter 10: Is Chart Analysis Still Valid?

Chapter 11: Technical Indicators

What Is an Indicator?

The Basic Indicator Calculations

Comparing Indicators

Moving Average Types

Oscillators and Trading Signals

Indicator Myths

Indicator "Types"

Conclusion.

Notes

Part III: Applying Chart Analysis to Trading

Chapter 12: Midtrend Entry and Pyramiding

Chapter 13: Choosing Stop-Loss Points

Note

Chapter 14: Setting Objectives and Other Position Exit Criteria

Chart-Based Objectives

Measured Move

Rule of Seven

Support and Resistance Levels

Overbought/Oversold Indicators

DeMark Sequential

Contrary Opinion

Trailing Stops

Change of Market Opinion

Chapter 15: The Most Important Rule in Chart Analysis

Failed Signals

Bull and Bear Traps

False Trend Line Breakouts

Return to Spike Extremes

Return to Wide-Ranging Day Extremes

Counter-to-Anticipated Breakout of Flag or Pennant

Opposite Direction Breakout of Flag or Pennant Following a Normal Breakout

Penetration of Top and Bottom Formations

Breaking of Curvature

The Future Reliability of Failed Signals

Part IV: Trading Systems and Performance Measurement

Chapter 16: Technical Trading Systems: Structure and Design:

The Benefits of a Mechanical Trading System

Three Basic Types of Systems

Trend-Following Systems

Ten Common Problems with Standard Trend-Following Systems

Possible Modifications for Basic Trend-Following Systems

Countertrend Systems

Diversification

Ten Common Problems with Trend-Following Systems Revisited

Chapter 17: Examples of Original Trading Systems

Wide-Ranging-Day System

Run-Day Breakout System

Run-Day Consecutive Count System

Chapter 18: Selecting the Best Futures Price Series for System Testing

Actual Contract Series

Nearest Futures

Constant-Forward ("Perpetual") Series

Continuous (Spread-Adjusted) Price Series

Comparing the Series

Chapter 19: Testing and Optimizing Trading Systems

The Well-Chosen Example.

Basic Concepts and Definitions

Choosing the Price Series

Choosing the Time Period

Realistic Assumptions

Optimizing Systems

The Optimization Myth

Testing versus Fitting

The Truth about Simulated Results

Multimarket System Testing

Negative Results

Ten Steps in Constructing and Testing a Trading System

Observations about Trading Systems

Chapter 20: How to Evaluate Past Performance

Why Return Alone Is Meaningless

Risk-Adjusted Return Measures

Visual Performance Evaluation

Investment Insights

Part V: Fundamental Analysis

Chapter 21: Fourteen Popular Fallacies, or What Not to Do Wrong

Five Short Scenes

The Fourteen Fallacies

Chapter 22: Supply-Demand Analysis: Basic Economic Theory:

Supply and Demand Defined

The Problem of Quantifying Demand

Understanding the Difference between Consumption and Demand

The Need to Incorporate Demand

Possible Methods for Incorporating Demand

Why Traditional Fundamental Analysis Doesn't Work in the Gold Market

Chapter 23: Types of Fundamental Analysis

The "Old Hand" Approach

The Balance Table

The Analogous Season Method

Regression Analysis

Index Models

Chapter 24: The Role of Expectations

Using Prior-Year Estimates Rather Than Revised Statistics

Adding Expectations as a Variable in the Price-Forecasting Model

The Influence of Expectations on Actual Statistics

Defining New-Crop Expectations

Chapter 25: Incorporating Inflation

Chapter 26: Seasonal Analysis

The Concept of Seasonal Trading

Cash versus Futures Price Seasonality

The Role of Expectations

Is It Real or Is It Probability?

Calculating a Seasonal Index

Chapter 27: Analyzing Market Response

Evaluating Market Response for Repetitive Events.

Chapter 28: Building a Forecasting Model: A Step-by-Step Approach:

Chapter 29: Fundamental Analysis and Trading

Fundamental versus Technical Analysis: A Greater Need for Caution

Three Major Pitfalls in Fundamental Analysis

Combining Fundamental Analysis with Technical Analysis and Money Management

Why Bother with Fundamentals?

Are Fundamentals Instantaneously Discounted?

Fitting the News to Price Moves

Fundamental Developments: Long-Term Implications versus Short-Term Response

Summary

Part VI: Futures Spreads and Options

Chapter 30: The Concepts and Mechanics of Spread Trading

Introduction

Spreads-Definition and Basic Concepts

Why Trade Spreads?

Types of Spreads

The General Rule

The General Rule-Applicability and Nonapplicability

Spread Rather Than Outright-An Example

The Limited-Risk Spread

The Spread Trade-Analysis and Approach

Pitfalls and Points of Caution

Chapter 31: Intercommodity Spreads: Determining Contract Ratios

Chapter 32: Spread Trading in Stock Index Futures

Intramarket Stock Index Spreads

Intermarket Stock Index Spreads

Chapter 33: Spread Trading in Currency Futures

Intercurrency Spreads

Intracurrency Spreads

Chapter 34: An Introduction to Options on Futures

Preliminaries

Factors That Determine Option Premiums

Theoretical versus Actual Option Premiums

Delta (the Neutral Hedge Ratio)

Chapter 35: Option Trading Strategies

Comparing Trading Strategies

Profit/Loss Profiles for Key Trading Strategies

Part VII: Practical Trading Guidelines

Chapter 36: The Planned Trading Approach

Step 1: Define a Trading Philosophy

Step 2: Choose Markets to Be Traded

Step 3: Specify Risk Control Plan

Step 4: Establish a Planning Time Routine

Step 5: Maintain a Trader's Spreadsheet.

Step 6: Maintain a Trader's Diary

Step 7: Analyze Personal Trading

Chapter 37: Seventy-Five Trading Rules and Market Observations

Entering Trades

Exiting Trades and Risk Control (Money Management)

Other Risk-Control (Money Management) Rules

Holding and Exiting Winning Trades

Miscellaneous Principles and Rules

Market Patterns

Analysis and Review

Chapter 38: 50 Market Wizard Lessons

Appendix A: Introduction to Regression Analysis

Basics

Meaning of Best Fit

A Practical Example

Reliability of the Regression Forecast

Appendix B: A Review of Elementary Statistics

Measures of Dispersion

Probability Distributions

Reading the Normal Curve (Z) Table

Populations and Samples

Estimating the Population Mean and Standard Deviation from the Sample Statistics

Sampling Distribution

Central Limit Theorem

Standard Error of the Mean

Confidence Intervals

The t-Test

Appendix C: Checking the Significance of the Regression Equation

The Population Regression Line

Basic Assumptions of Regression Analysis

Testing the Significance of the Regression Coefficients

Standard Error of the Regression

Confidence Interval for an Individual Forecast

Extrapolation

Coefficient of Determination (r2)

Spurious ("Nonsense") Correlations

Appendix D: The Multiple Regression Model

Basics of Multiple Regression

Applying the t-Test in the Multiple Regression Model

Confidence Intervals for an Individual Forecast

R2 and Corrected R2

F-Test

Analyzing a Regression Run

Appendix E: Analyzing the Regression Equation

Outliers

The Residual Plot

Autocorrelation Defined

The Durbin-Watson Statistic as a Measure of Autocorrelation

The Implications of Autocorrelation.

Missing Variables and Time Trend.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781118859544

1118859545

9781119209713

1119209714

OCLC:

960940725