The paradox of risk : leaving the monetary policy comfort zone / Angel Ubide.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Ubide, Angel J., author.

Series:

Policy analyses in international economics ; 108.

Policy analyses in international economics ; 108

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Monetary policy.

Interest rates.

Risk.

International finance.

Physical Description:

xx, 298 pages ; 23 cm.

Place of Publication:

Washington, DC : Peterson Institute for International Economics, [2017]

Summary:

Ángel Ubide is a managing director at Goldman Sachs' Private Wealth Management group. He was a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics from 2009 to February 2016. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs, he worked for a decade and a half in the hedge fund industry, first at Tudor Investment Corporation (2001-12) and later at D. E. Shaw Group (2012-14). He has also worked at the International Monetary Fund (1996-2001). He is a member of the Steering Committee of the Euro50 Group and of the scientific board of Progressive Economy. He was board member of the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee (2007-12); founding member of the European Central Bank's Shadow Governing Council (2002-12); and member of the Centre for European Policy Studies' macroeconomic policy group (2004-07). He has written extensively on international macroeconomics, monetary policy, European policy issues, banking, and exchange rates. He holds a PhD in economics from the European University Institute in Florence, Italy Book jacket.

Contents:

1 Introduction 1

The Paradox of Risk 3

Of Boring Central Bankers, "NICE" Economies, and the Power of Narratives 6

Just Blame the Central Banks 9

Roadmap of the Book 10

The Future Is Not What It Used to Be 17

2 The Intellectual and Political Background to the Crisis 19

It All Started in the 1970s: The Anti-Inflation Consensus 19

Deflation and Zero Interest Rates? That's Such a Japanese Thing 23

The European Obsession with Competitiveness and Reforms 26

The Diabolical Politics of Rescue Programs 28

Lean versus Clean-or How the Deep Origin of the Crisis Lies in a Bathtub 32

Bayesian Inference Meets Politicians in a Rush-and Austerity Is Born 35

Markets and the Crisis: In Search of Analogues 38

I Wouldn't Start from Here 39

3 The Great Experiment in Monetary Policy: Central Bank Actions since 2007 41

Conventional versus Unconventional Monetary Policy 42

How to Do Monetary Policy? Goals, Tools, Strategies, and Communication 43

Policy Goals: Is Clarifying Price Stability Enough? 44

Policy Tools 48

Policy Strategies: Forward Guidance to Sell Insurance on the Economic Outlook 80

Policy Communication: Opening the Doors of the Temple 87

Do or Do Not. There Is No Try 88

4 Has Monetary Policy Worked? Yes, No, Maybe 91

Did Monetary Policy Decisions Affect Financial Conditions in the Expected Way? 92

Did Policies Ease to the Extent Recommended by Simple Benchmark Rules? 127

Did Policies Achieve Their Objectives in Terms of Inflation and Growth? 141

Has Monetary Policy Had Any Negative Side Effects? 163

Monetary Policy Worked-But It Can Do Better 185

5 Have We Learned Anything? Crafting a Monetary Policy for All Seasons 187

Goals: A Program of Opportunistic Reflation 189

Tools: Be Ready to Use All the Tools at All Times 197

Strategies: Adopt Cyclically Adjusted Forward Guidance 206

Communication: Stop Calling It Unconventional 215

Institutional Design: Financial Stability as Part of Central Banking, Not Monetary Policy 217

A Game Plan for the Future 222

6 Conclusion: The Future Is Not What It Used to Be 225

The Brexit Easing 226

The Resetting of Abenomics 229

The Trump Surprise 231

Fiscal Policy in the Lead 232

It's All about Risk Management 234.

Notes:

Includes bibliographical references (pages 271-283).

Other Format:

Online version: Ubide, Angel J., author. Paradox of risk

ISBN:

9780881327199

0881327190

OCLC:

950448936