Anthropic bias : observation selection effects in science and philosophy / Nick Bostrom.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Bostrom, Nick, 1973-

Series:

Studies in philosophy (New York, N.Y.)

Studies in philosophy

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Methodology.

Anthropic principle.

Selectivity (Psychology).

Observation (Scientific method).

Physical Description:

1 online resource (241 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

New York : Routledge, 2002.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Anthropic Bias explores how to reason when you suspect that your evidence is biased by "observation selection effects"--that is, evidence that has been filtered by the precondition that there be some suitably positioned observer to "have" the evidence. This conundrum--sometimes alluded to as "the anthropic principle," "self-locating belief," or "indexical information"--turns out to be a surprisingly perplexing and intellectually stimulating challenge, one abounding with important implications for many areas in science and philosophy. There are the philosophical thought experiments and paradoxes: the Doomsday Argument; Sleeping Beauty; the Presumptuous Philosopher; Adam & Eve; the Absent-Minded Driver; the Shooting Room. And there are the applications in contemporary science: cosmology ("How many universes are there?", "Why does the universe appear fine-tuned for life?"); evolutionary theory ("How improbable was the evolution of intelligent life on our planet?"); the problem of time's arrow ("Can it be given a thermodynamic explanation?"); quantum physics ("How can the many-worlds theory be tested?"); game-theory problems with imperfect recall ("How to model them?"); even traffic analysis ("Why is the 'next lane' faster?"). Anthropic Bias argues that the same principles are at work across all these domains. And it offers a synthesis: a mathematically explicit theory of observation selection effects that attempts to meet scientific needs while steering clear of philosophical paradox.

Contents:

""Cover""; ""Title""; ""Copyright""; ""Dedication""; ""Contents""; ""ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS""; ""PREFACE""; ""Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION""; ""Observation selection effects""; ""A brief history of anthropic reasoning""; ""Synopsis of this book""; ""Chapter 2 FINE-TUNING IN COSMOLOGY""; ""Does fine-tuning need explaining?""; ""No “Inverse Gambler�s Fallacy�""; ""Roger White and Phil Dowe�s analysis""; ""Surprising vs. unsurprising improbable events""; ""Modeling observation selection effects: the angel parable""; ""Preliminary conclusions""; ""Chapter 3 ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLES: THE MOTLEY FAMILY""

""The anthropic principle as expressing an observation selection effect""""Anthropic hodgepodge""; ""Freak observers and why earlier formulations are inadequate""; ""The Self-Sampling Assumption""; ""Chapter 4 THOUGHT EXPERIMENTS SUPPORTING THE SELF-SAMPLING ASSUMPTION""; ""The Dungeon gedanken""; ""Two thought experiments by John Leslie""; ""The Incubator gedanken""; ""The reference class problem""; ""Chapter 5 THE SELF-SAMPLING ASSUMPTION IN SCIENCE""; ""SSA in cosmology""; ""SSA in thermodynamics""; ""SSA in evolutionary biology""; ""SSA in traffic analysis""; ""SSA in quantum physics""

""Summary of the case for SSA""""Chapter 6 THE DOOMSDAY ARGUMENT""; ""Background""; ""Doomsayer Gott""; ""The incorrectness of Gott�s argument""; ""Doomsayer Leslie""; ""The premisses of DA, and the Old evidence problem""; ""Leslie�s views on the reference class problem""; ""Alternative conclusions of DA""; ""Chapter 7 INVALID OBJECTIONS AGAINST THE DOOMSDAY ARGUMENT""; ""Doesn�t the Doomsday argument fail to “target the truth�?""; ""The “baby-paradox�""; ""Isn�t a sample size of one too small?""; ""Couldn�t a Cro-Magnon man have used the Doomsday argument?""

""We can make the effect go away simply by considering a larger hypothesis space""""Aren�t we necessarily alive now?""; ""Sliding reference of “soon� and “late�?""; ""How could I have been a 16th century human?""; ""Doesn�t your theory presuppose that what happens in causally disconnected regions affects what happens here?""; ""But we know so much more about ourselves than our birth ranks!""; ""The Self-Indication Assumption�Is there safety in numbers?""; ""Chapter 8 OBSERVER-RELATIVE CHANCES IN ANTHROPIC REASONING?""; ""Leslie�s argument, and why it fails""

""Observer-relative chances: another go""""Discussion: indexical facts�no conflict with physicalism""; ""In conclusion""; ""Appendix: the no-betting results""; ""Chapter 9 PARADOXES OF THE SELF-SAMPLING ASSUMPTION""; ""The Adam & Eve experiments""; ""Analysis of Lazy Adam: predictions and counterfactuals""; ""The UN++ gedanken: reasons and abilities""; ""Quantum Joe: SSA and the Principal Principle""; ""Upshot""; ""Appendix: The Meta-Newcomb problem""; ""Chapter 10 OBSERVATION SELECTION THEORY: A METHODOLOGY FOR ANTHROPIC REASONING""; ""Building blocks, theory constraints and desiderata""

""The outline of a solution""

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 207-217) and index.

Description based on print version record.

Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.

ISBN:

0-203-95346-0

1-136-71099-X

1-136-71097-3

9780203953464

OCLC:

922959163