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Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress : A Proposed Set of Indicators / James McHugh, Iva Petrova, Emanuele Baldacci.
- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- McHugh, James.
- Series:
- IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2011/094
- IMF Working Papers
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Economic indicators.
- Fiscal policy.
- Risk management.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (32 p.)
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2011.
- Language Note:
- English
- Summary:
- This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.
- Contents:
- Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Conceptual Framework; 1. Fiscal Monitoring Indicators; 2. Data Definitions and Sources; A. Basic Fiscal Variables; B. Long-Term Fiscal Trends; C. Asset and Liability Management; III. Monitoring Fiscal Vulnerability and Stress; A. Fiscal Vulnerability Index; B. Fiscal Stress Index; 3. Summary of Fiscal Stress Events; 4. True Versus Predicted Occurrence of Crises; IV. Empirical Application; Figure 1. Composite Risk Scores, 2010; 5. Fiscal Risks in G-20 Advanced Economies, GIPS and Emerging Economies, 2010
- 6. Fiscal Risks in Advanced and Emerging Economies, 2010V. Concluding Remarks; References; Footnotes
- Notes:
- Description based upon print version of record.
- Includes bibliographical references.
- Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (ebrary, viewed September 25, 2014).
- ISBN:
- 9786613873040
- 9781462325344
- 1462325343
- 9781462366712
- 1462366716
- 9781283560597
- 1283560593
- 9781455252312
- 145525231X
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