Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus : An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions / Serhan Cevik, Mohammad Rahmati.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Cevik, Serhan.

Contributor:

Rahmati, Mohammad.

International Monetary Fund.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/002

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Economic development.

War--Termination.

War.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (50 p.)

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960–2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-generalized method of moments. In addition to an array of demographic, economic, geographic, and institutional variables, we introduce an estimated risk of conflict recurrence as an explanatory variable in the growth regression, because post-conflict countries have a tendency to relapse into subsequent conflicts even years after the cessation of violence. The empirical results show that domestic factors, including the estimated probability of conflict recurrence, as well as a range of external variables, contribute to post-conflict economic performance.

Contents:

Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Civil Conflicts Across the World; II. A Brief Survey of Growth and Conflict Literature; 2. Distribution of Post-Conflict Growth Rates; III. Data Overview; IV. Theoretical Framework and Empirical Methodology; A. Estimating Post-Conflict Economic Performance; B. Estimating the Risk of Conflict Recurrence; Tables; 1. Determinants of the Risk of Conflict Recurrence; 3. Probability of Conflict Recurrence; 4. Variation in the Risk of Conflict Recurrence; 5. Risk of Conflict Recurrence and Economic Growth; V. Empirical Results

2. Determinants of Post-Conflict Real GDP Per Capita Growth3. Determinants of Post-Conflict Real GDP Per Capita Growth (Alternative); VI. Robustness of the Results; VII. Conclusion; Appendix Tables; 1. List of Countries with Conflict Episodes; 2. List of Variables; 3. Summary of Descriptive Statistics; 4. Estimation of Different Time Regimes; 5. Estimation of Different Geographic Specifications; 6. Fisher-Type Unit Root Test Based on the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test; 7. Correlation of Conflict Risk Measured by Models Presented in Table 1; REFERENCES

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781475590647

1475590644

9781299264717

1299264719

9781557756602

1557756600