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Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria : Low But Still Relevant / Dirk Muir, Anke Weber.
- Format:
- Book
- Government document
- Author/Creator:
- Muir, Dirk.
- Series:
- IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/049
- IMF Working Papers
- Language:
- English
- Subjects (All):
- Fiscal policy--Bulgaria.
- Fiscal policy.
- Economic development--Bulgaria.
- Economic development.
- Business cycles--Bulgaria.
- Business cycles.
- Physical Description:
- 1 online resource (20 p.)
- Place of Publication:
- Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013.
- Language Note:
- English
- Summary:
- With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and model-based approaches. While fiscal multipliers have been modest in the past, as can be expected in a small open emerging economy, the effect on output is not independent of the speed of adjustment and the specific consolidation measures used. The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is larger in downturns than in expansions and capital spending and direct taxes are associated with the largest effects on output, while non-targeted government transfers and indirect taxes are associated with a smaller impact. The results suggest that increased capital spending financed by higher indirect tax revenue collections through base broadening has sizeable growth effects over the medium and long-term.
- Contents:
- Cover; Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant; I. INTRODUCTION; II. LITERATURE REVIEW; III. FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN BULGARIA-AN EMPIRICAL APPROACH; A. Data and Methodology; B. Results; IV. FISCAL MULTIPLIERS IN BULGARIA-USING THE IMF'S GIMF; A. The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF); B. Data and Methodology; C. Results; V. IS THERE A BETTER WAY TO STRUCTURE THE BUDGET TO SUPPORT GROWTH IN BULGARIA IN THE FUTURE?; VI. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS; VII. APPENDIX; REFERENCES
- Notes:
- February 2013.
- Includes bibliographical references.
- Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (ebrary, viewed September 26, 2014).
- ISBN:
- 1-4755-3508-2
- 1-4755-3434-5
- 1-299-39524-4
- 1-4755-3956-8
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