Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt : Can Ireland Find a Way Back to Its Future? / Mwanza Nkusu.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Nkusu, Mwanza.

Contributor:

International Monetary Fund.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2013/035

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Debt--Ireland.

Debt.

Economic development--Ireland.

Economic development.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (36 p.)

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2013.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

This paper investigates the prospects for Ireland to grow its economy against the backdrop of high indebtedness. The paper uses vector autoregressive analysis to explore the interlinkages among competitiveness, exports, economic growth, and fiscal performance. The emerging conclusion is that Ireland, which has regained cost competitiveness following the crisis-driven fall in domestic prices, is poised to return to its path of strong exports and economic growth and lower imbalances provided that it maintains competitiveness, though a pickup in external demand is critical. Three main findings underpin this conclusion. First, external demand is an important driver of exports and also the single most important determinant of Ireland’s GDP and government revenue. Second, declines in price competitiveness, featured by real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciations, restrain exports and economic growth. Third, exports boost output, which in turn enhances fiscal performance.

Contents:

Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Debt and Growth: Ireland's Experience and Current Struggle; A. Ireland's Pre-crisis Reforms, Growth, and Public Debt: A Virtuous Cycle; Figures; 1. Ireland: Public Debt in an International Perspective and Interest Burden; 2. Ireland: Reforms, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Performance; B. The crisis and its aftermath: Unearthing the seeds of the severity of the crisis; 3. Ireland: Economic Changes in the Run-up to the Crisis: Seeds of a Severe Crisis; 4. Ireland: FDI Dynamics in the Run-up to the Crisis

C. The Post-Crisis Imbalances: a Stumbling Block on Ireland's Way5. Ireland: Competitiveness Indicators Send Mixed Signals; III. Econometric Analysis; A. Data and stylized facts; B. Vector Autoregressive Specification; 6. Ireland: Exports, GDP Growth, and Fiscal performance (1980-2007); C. Exploring the linkages between exports, GDP, and revenue: baseline model; D. Expanded model: what does it reveal?; Tables; 1. Effects of Shocks to the REER measures: Impulse Responses and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition; 7. Ireland: Comparison of IRFs and FEVD from VAR1 and VAR2 models

Notes:

Description based upon print version of record.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781475584295

1475584296

9781475521702

1475521707

9781299265172

1299265170

9781475547290

1475547293