AIDS epidemiology : a quantitative approach / Ron Brookmeyer, Mitchell H. Gail.

Format:

Book

Author/Creator:

Brookmeyer, Ron, author.

Gail, Mitchell H., author.

Series:

Monographs in epidemiology and biostatistics ; 22.

Oxford scholarship online.

Oxford scholarship online

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

AIDS (Disease)--Epidemiology.

AIDS (Disease).

Biometry.

Epidemiology--Statistical methods.

Epidemiology.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome--epidemiology.

Epidemiologic Methods.

Medical Subjects:

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome--epidemiology.

Epidemiologic Methods.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (371 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

New York ; Oxford University Press, 2023.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Confronting problems unique to AIDS research, this study focuses on the creation of methods for the design and analysis of epidemiological data, the natural history of AIDS, methods for tracking and projecting the course of the epidemic, and statistical issues on therapeutic trials.

Contents:

Intro

Contents

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Brief History

1.2 HIV Virus and Its Clinical Effects

1.3 Measuring the Epidemic

1.4 Worldwide Scope of the Epidemic

2. RISK FACTORS FOR INFECTION AND THE PROBABILITY OF HIV TRANSMISSION

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Studies of AIDS Patients

2.3 Case-Control and Cohort Studies to Identify Risk Factors

2.4 Risks from Point Exposures

2.5 Sexual Transmission and Partner Studies

3. SURVEYS TO DETERMINE SEROPREVALENCE AND SEROINCIDENCE

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Estimating Seroprevalence Rates from Representative (Probability-Based) Samples

3.3 Surveys of Selected Subpopulations

3.4 Estimating National Seroprevalence from Surveys of Selected Subpopulations

3.5 Estimating HIV Incidence from Survey Data

4. THE INCUBATION PERIOD DISTRIBUTION

4.1 Introduction and Historical Overview

4.2 Mathematical Models for the Incubation Period Distribution

4.3 Retrospective Data on AIDS Cases

4.4 Prevalent Cohort Studies

4.5 Studies with Doubly Censored and Interval Censored Data

4.6 Deconvolution Methods (Back-Calculating the Incubation Distribution)

4.7 Duration of the Pre-Antibody Phase

4.8 Synthesis of Knowledge of the Incubation Period Distribution

5. COFACTORS AND MARKERS

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Cofactors and Doubly Censored Data

5.3 Cofactors and Prevalent Cohort Studies

5.4 Cofactors and Retrospective Studies of Cases

5.5 Markers as Prognostic Factors

5.6 The Marker Trajectory

5.7 Other Uses of Markers

5.8 Variability of Markers

5.9 Synthesis of Knowledge of Cofactors and Markers

6. SCREENING AND ACCURACY OF TESTS FOR HIV

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Sensitivity, Specificity, and Related Measures of Accuracy for Diagnostic Tests

6.3 Screening Applications and Positive Predictive Value

6.4 Safety of the Blood Supply.

6.5 Assays for Live Virus, for HIV Antigen, and for HIV Genome

7. STATISTICAL ISSUES IN SURVEILLANCE OF AIDS INCIDENCE

7.1 Introduction

7.2 AIDS Incidence Data

7.3 Statistical Analysis of Reporting Delays

7.4 Underreporting of AIDS Cases

7.5 Changes in the Surveillance Definition

7.6 Empirical Extrapolation of AIDS Incidence

8. BACK-CALCULATION

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Deterministic Deconvolution

8.3 Statistical Deconvolution

8.4 Uncertainty in Back-Calculation

8.5 Back-Calculation for Investigating Hypotheses About the Infection Rate

8.6 Generalized Back-Calculation: Extension to Account for Nonstationary Incubation Distributions

8.7 Application to the U.S. AIDS Epidemic

8.8 Technical Notes

9. EPIDEMIC TRANSMISSION MODELS

9.1 Introduction

9.2 A Closed Two-Compartment Model

9.3 Generalizations of the Closed Two-Compartment Model

9.4 Heterogeneous Subgroups and the Importance of Mixing Patterns

9.5 Evaluating Prevention Strategies

9.6 Stochastic Epidemic Models

9.7 Comparing Parameters in Epidemic Models with Empirical Estimates of Doubling Times and HIV Prevalence Ratios

9.8 Discussion

10. SYNTHESIZING DATA SOURCES AND METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE SCOPE OF THE EPIDEMIC

10.1 Introduction

10.2 Combining Data and Methods

10.3 Forecasting in Developing Countries

10.4 Forecasting Pediatric AIDS

10.5 Forecasting for Small Areas

11. DEVELOPING AND EVALUATING NEW THERAPIES AND VACCINES

11.1 Introduction

11.2 History of the Development of AZT

11.3 Approaches to Therapy Based on the Pathophysiology of HIV Disease

11.4 Observational Studies

11.5 Special Problems and Design Issues in Clinical Trials for HIV Disease

11.6 Vaccine Trials

References

Index

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

K

L

M

N

O

P

Q

R

S

T

U.

V

W

Z.

Notes:

Previously issued in print: 1994.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Derived record based on print version record and publisher information.

ISBN:

0-19-773738-2

1-280-52629-7

9786610526291

0-19-974874-8

1-4237-6354-8

OCLC:

226376720