Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries / Carlos Caceres, Leandro Medina.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Cáceres, Carlos.

Contributor:

Medina, Leandro.

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2012/260

IMF working paper ; WP/12/260

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Petroleum products--Prices.

Petroleum products.

Finance, Public--Middle East.

Finance, Public.

Finance, Public--Africa, North.

Physical Description:

1 online resource (23 p.)

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2012.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices—that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending—in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to hydrocarbon-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is noted that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices. .

Contents:

Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Real Break-Even Prices in Selected Middle East and North African Countries; II. Data and Empirical Methodology; 2. Real Brent Oil Price; III. Main Results and Discussion; 3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I); 4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); IV. Conclusion; Annex I: Summary Tables; Tables; 1. Projected Nominal Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries; 2. Projected Real Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries

3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I)4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); Annex II: Modeling Oil Prices Using Geometric Brownian Motion; Annex III: Stochastic Simulations; 5. Historic and Simulated Real Price of Brent Oil (in logarithm); References

Notes:

"October 2012" -- verso of t.p.

At head of title : Middle East and Central Asia Department -- verso of t.p.

Includes bibliographical references (p. 18-20).

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9781475598469

1475598467

9781475545005

1475545002

9781283947886

1283947889

OCLC:

818796986