Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Post-crisis Assessment / Evridiki Tsounta.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Tsounta, Evridiki.

Contributor:

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Department.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2009/235

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Housing--Econometric models--Canada.

Housing.

Housing--Prices--Canada.

Physical Description:

20 p. : ill.

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2009.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

Canadian house prices have increased significantly between 2003 and early 2008, with a marked downward trend since mid-2008, especially in the resource-rich western provinces. This paper estimates the evolution of equilibrium real home prices during this period in key provinces and finds that, following recent declines, home prices are now generally close to equilibrium throughout Canada. However, house prices in Alberta and British Columbia remain around 8 percent overvalued at the end of the sample (second quarter of 2009). Despite the limitations of econometric estimates of house-price dynamics, the measured small degree of overvaluation suggests that the Canadian housing market is essentially at equilibrium.

Contents:

Intro

Contents

I. Introduction

II. Recent Housing Market Developments

A. The Run-up in House Prices and Construction

B. Reversal in House Prices

III. Macrofinancial Linkages from the Housing Market

IV. Existing Literature

V. Econometric Model and Results

VI. Conclusions

References

Figures

1. Canada. Cummulative Increase in Resale House Prices

2. G-7. Price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios, 1970-2009

3. Select Eastern Canadian Provinces: House Price Over/Undervaluation, 1993Q1-2009Q2

4. Select Western Canadian Provinces: House Price Over/Udnervaluation, 1993Q1-2009Q2

Tables

1. Real Prices of New Houses and Land, 1995-2009Q2

2. Determinants of House Prices in Select Canadian Provinces.

Notes:

"October 2009."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 13-14).

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9786612844362

9781462339617

1462339611

9781451873825

1451873824

9781282844360

1282844369

9781452729879

1452729875

OCLC:

609993476

Publisher Number:

221246 CaOOCEL (Public Documents)