Improving Surveillance Across the CEMAC Region / Plamen Iossifov, Misa Takebe, Zaijin Zhan, Noriaki Kinoshita, Robert York.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Iossifov, Plamen.

Contributor:

Kinoshita, Noriaki.

Takebe, Misa.

York, Robert.

Zhan, Zaijin.

International Monetary Fund. African Department.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2009/260

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Communauté économique et monétaire de l'Afrique centrale.

Monetary policy--Africa, Central.

Monetary policy.

Monetary unions--Africa, Central.

Monetary unions.

Banks and banking--Africa, Central.

Banks and banking.

Africa, Central--Economic integration--History.

Africa, Central.

Physical Description:

57 p. : ill.

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2009.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

In this paper, we consider the design of the surveillance, and, in particular, the fiscal criteria in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) with the view to ensuring they are consistent with internal and external sustainability. This consistency is important within a monetary union because fiscal policy is the primary instrument through which national governments can influence macroeconomic performance. We comment on how surveillance might be improved by broadening the region's current criteria through alternative fiscal indicators, some focus on the scope and nature of external shocks, and attention to the consistency of policies in assuring the viability of the union and its fixed exchange rate regime.

Contents:

Intro

Contents

Executive Summary

I. Introduction

II. Institutional Background and Features

A. Macroeconomic Policies in the CEMAC Region

B. Policy Coordination and Surveillance

III. Improving the Measures of Fiscal Surveillance

A. Fiscal Policy Objectives and Indicators

B. Indicators of Policy Stance and Policy Change

C. Indicators of Sustainability

D. Implications for Fiscal Surveillance

IV. External Shocks and the Convergence Criteria

A. External Shocks and Growth

B. The Efficacy of Fiscal Policies in Mitigating Shocks

C. Implications for Regional Surveillance

V. External Stability Considerations and Regional Surveillance

A. Consistency of the CEMAC Fiscal Convergence Criteria with External Stability

B. The Desirability of a Foreign Reserves Target

C. Long-run Considerations in Regional Surveillance

VI. Summary and Policy Implications

Boxes

1. Brief Economic History of the Central African CFA Zone

2. Overview of the Optimum Currency Area Literature

3. BEAC Monetary Programming

4. Characteristics of Oil Revenue in the CEMAC

5. CEMAC Convergence Criteria

6. Fiscal Stance and Fiscal Impulse

7. The Primary Gap Measure

8. Constant Fiscal Expenditure Rule for Oil Producing Countries

9. Measuring the Impact of Exogenous Shocks on the Non-oil Economy

10. Measuring the Impact of Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policies on the Non-oil Economy

Tables

1. CEMAC Fiscal Developments and the Fiscal Convergence Criteria, 1998-2008

2. A Comparison of CEMAC Fiscal Indicators, 2000-08 (in percent of GDP)

3. A Comparison of CEMAC Fiscal Indicators, 2000-

4. Primary Gap Measures Across the CEMAC, 1998-2008

5. CEMAC Long-term Macroeconomic Assumptions

6. CEMAC Average Sustainable Non-oil Primary Deficit Under Different Fiscal Rules, 2009-48.

7. Real Non-oil GDP Growth in CEMAC Countries, 1980-2008

8. Correlation of Real GDP Growth Among CEMAC Countries, 1980-2008

9. Triggers of Recessions in CEMAC Countries, selected periods

10. Correlation Between Non-oil Real GDP and External Factors, 1980-2008

11. Correlation Between GDP, Public Expenditure, and Non-oil Revenue

12. Average Share of Non-oil Revenue and Expenditure in Non-oil GDP, 1980-2008

13. Variance Decomposition of Real GDP by Types of Shocks

14. CEMAC Share of Oil Revenue in Total Revenue and Correlation Between Fiscal and External Balances

15. CEMAC Currency Coverage Ratio, 2000-08

16. CEMAC Gross Official Reserves, 2000-08

Figures

1. CEMAC Real and Fiscal Developments, 1969-2008

2. CEMAC Terms of Trade and Balance of Payments Developments, 1969-2008

3. CEMAC Net International Reserve Coverage of Imports, 1995-2008

4. CEMAC Fiscal Policy and Procyclicality vis-à-vis Oil Revenue, 1980-2008

5. Nominal and Real Crude Oil (Spot) Prices, 1970-2014

6. CEMAC Non-oil Real GDP Growth and the Fiscal Impulse, 1995-2008

7. CEMAC External Debt and the Primary Gap, 1998-2008

8. CEMAC Sustainable Non-oil Primary Deficit Under Different Fiscal Rules, 2009-13

9. CEMAC Sensitivity of the Sustainable Non-oil Primary Deficit to Oil Prices Under a Permanent Income Hypothesis, 2009-13

10. Terms of Trade and Real Effective Exchange Rates, 1980-2008

11. Impulse Response of Output to a One Standard Deviation Change in Terms of Trade and Real Effective Exchange Rate Shocks

12. Impulse Response of Output to a One Standard Deviation Change in Revenue and Spending Shocks

13. CEMAC Overall Fiscal Balance and External Current Account Balance, 1996-2008

14. CEMAC Countries Overall Fiscal Balance and External Current Account Balance, 1996-2008.

15. CEMAC Foreign Assets of BEAC and Government Deposits at BEAC, 1995-2008

Appendix

Linkages Between Fiscal and Monetary Policies in a Non-Renewable Resource Producer under a Fixed Exchange Rate

References.

Notes:

"November 2009."

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9786612844928

9781462393091

1462393098

9781282844926

128284492X

9781451942026

1451942028

9781452756110

1452756112

OCLC:

680613482