How Russia Affects the Neighborhood - Trade, Financial, and Remittance Channels / Jaime Espinosa-Bowen, Nadeem Ilahi, Fahad Alturki.

Format:

Book

Government document

Author/Creator:

Espinosa-Bowen, Jaime.

Contributor:

Alturki, Fahad.

Ilahi, Nadeem.

International Monetary Fund.

Series:

IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; No. 2009/277

IMF Working Papers

Language:

English

Subjects (All):

Business cycles--Russia (Federation).

Business cycles.

Capital movements--Russia (Federation).

Capital movements.

Physical Description:

26 p. : ill.

Edition:

1st ed.

Place of Publication:

Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, 2009.

Language Note:

English

Summary:

We test the extent to which growth in the 11 CIS countries (excluding Russia) was associated with developments in Russia, overall, as well as through the trade, financial and remittance channels over the last decade or so. The results point to the continued existence of economic links between the CIS countries and Russia, though these links may have altered since the 1998 crisis. Russia appears to influence regional growth mainly through the remittance channel and somewhat less so through the financial channel. There is a shrinking role of the trade (exports to Russia) channel. Russian growth shocks are associated with sizable effects on Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and, to some extent, Georgia.

Contents:

Intro

Contents

I. Introduction

II. Background

III. Empirical Specification

IV. Data and Summary Statistics

V. The Findings

A. Panel Results

B. VAR Results

VI. Conclusion

References

Tables

1. Testing for Unit Root

2. Summary Statistics

3. Determinants of GDP Growth in CIS Countries

4. Determinants of GDP Growth in CIS Countries-Trade Channel

5. Determinants of GDP Growth in CIS Countries (Excluding Russia)-Financial Linkages

6. Determinants of GDP Growth in CIS Countries-Remittances

7. Determinants of GDP Growth in CIS Countries-Combined

8. Forecast Error Variance Decompositions of Growth in CIS

Figures

1. Average Share of CIS Countries' Exports to Russia and Europe

2. Ratio of Remittances from Russia and Europe to GDP of Non-Russian CIS Countries

3. Outflow of Remittances from Russia

4. Russia and CIS: The Crisis of 1998

5. Growth in CIS Countries, Russia, and Euro Area

6. Russian Current Account Balance, NIF, and CIS Growth

7. Impact of Russian Growth on Growth in CIS Countries: Effects by Country

8. Impact of Euro Area Growth on Growth in CIS Countries: Effects by Country

9. Proportion of the CIS Growth Variations that are due to Russian Growth

10. Proportion of the CIS Growth Variations that are due to Euro Area Growth

Appendix Table

1. Correlation.

Notes:

Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph

Includes bibliographical references.

Description based on print version record.

ISBN:

9786612844645

9781462322459

146232245X

9781452736938

1452736936

9781282844643

1282844644

9781451874228

1451874227

OCLC:

671571351